Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURUSD below key support at 1.0723, eyeing 1.0660-1.0600 levels
USDJPY extending uptrend could be testing 2022 peak at around 152
GBPUSD likely to test 1.25 support
USDCHF above 0.8820 resistance, likely taking out 0.89, eyeing 0.90
AUDUSD resuming downtrend looking at 0.64 support
USDCAD breaking bullish out of range, likely move to 1.3625
EURUSD has broken below key support at around 1.723 and below the 0.618 retracement thereby continuing its downtrend that is likely to take the pair to support at around 1.0660.
RSI is confirming the bearish picture that could push EURUSD to the 0.786 retracement, a Fibonacci retracement level often being reached in the FX market.
To demolish the bearish scenario a close above 1.0805
USDJPY broke above resistance at around 149.75 extending its uptrend that weas confirmed when closing above 148.80
Trading around the 1.618 projection of the latest correction there is no strong resistance until the 2022 peak at around 152
To revere the bullish picture a close below 148.80 is neededGBPUSD spiked yesterday higher to the top of the Cloud a few cents below 1.27 only to collapse resuming downtrend. A test of strong support at around 1.25 is likely.
The rising 100 DMA will add to the support strength
A close below 1.25 is likely fueling a another sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement level and support at 1.2375
USDCHF went straight through resistance at around 0.8820 and is close to testing the 0.618 retracement at 0.8896
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating higher USDCHF. No strong resistance until around the 0.786 retracement at 0.9050
USDCAD broke yesterday above upper ranger and resistance at 1.3545. That level is now a support currently being tested.
However, bullish trend is confirmed by positive sentiment on RSI and the higher close with short-term potential to the 0.618 retracement at 1.3625, but USDCAD could move to the 0.786 retracement at 1.3745 medium-term
A daily close below 1.3545 could jeopardize the bullish scenario.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)