Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: DAX/GER40 cfd could be testing key support shortly
AEX25/NETH25 cfd below rising trendline. Seems heavy
BEL20/BELG20 cfd in down trend breaking, now below support
CAC40/FRA40 cfd testing retracement and support
DAX seems destined to test key support at around 15,625. If DAX closes below that support a down trend has been confirmed.
At the time of writing daily RSI is testing the 40 threshold and a close below will change the sentiment to negative with likely lower DAX levels to follow.
Some support at 15,482. The 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support.
If DAX bounces off the support at 15,625, or even stronger if a rebound occurs before touching the support, could lead to DAX getting back above 16K.
If that scenario plays out DAX is likely to test previous all-time highs at around 16,427.
AEX25 is below its rising trendline suggesting the uptrend could be over. That is unless AEX can be lifted back above the rising trendline and RSI does not close below 40 threshold
An Index close below 748 will confirm downtrend that is likely to lead to selling pressure down to around 735 possibly all the way down to 720-715 medium-term.
However, if AEX manages to close above its rising trendline the uptrend could resume to previous peaks around 775.
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