Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 cfd could be testing key support shortly
AEX25/NETH25 cfd below rising trendline. Seems heavy
BEL20/BELG20 cfd in down trend breaking, now below support
CAC40/FRA40 cfd testing retracement and support
DAX seems destined to test key support at around 15,625. If DAX closes below that support a down trend has been confirmed.
At the time of writing daily RSI is testing the 40 threshold and a close below will change the sentiment to negative with likely lower DAX levels to follow.
Some support at 15,482. The 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support.
If DAX bounces off the support at 15,625, or even stronger if a rebound occurs before touching the support, could lead to DAX getting back above 16K.
If that scenario plays out DAX is likely to test previous all-time highs at around 16,427.
AEX25 is below its rising trendline suggesting the uptrend could be over. That is unless AEX can be lifted back above the rising trendline and RSI does not close below 40 threshold
An Index close below 748 will confirm downtrend that is likely to lead to selling pressure down to around 735 possibly all the way down to 720-715 medium-term.
However, if AEX manages to close above its rising trendline the uptrend could resume to previous peaks around 775.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
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Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach