Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
S&P ASX 200 has broken out of its rising channel in what could be a correction. Minor support at 7,102 and strong support at 7K where the 55 and 200 SMAs will provide support.
However, RSI is still showing positive sentiment so if ASX200 moves higher to close above 7,254 uptrend will resume with a likely new high above 7,400
Hang Seng Index could be running out of steam just below 20K and key strong resistance at 20,185.
Divergence on RSI indicates trend exhaustion and if Hang Seng drops back below its medium-term falling trend line bears could find renewed energy. A daily close below 18,799 will confirm new down trend. Support at around 17K.
China A50 (future) seems to be struggling breaking above its 200 daily SMA just below key resistance at 13,502 and the 0.618 retracement.
If A50 slides back below 13K further down side should be expected towards 12,500-12,250. A daily close below 12,610 will confirm new down trend that is likely to test the falling medium-term trend line (black line)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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