Technical Update - CAC40 in downtrend. How low can it go? AEX25 and SMI20 uptrends are stretched, reversals or extensions? Technical Update - CAC40 in downtrend. How low can it go? AEX25 and SMI20 uptrends are stretched, reversals or extensions? Technical Update - CAC40 in downtrend. How low can it go? AEX25 and SMI20 uptrends are stretched, reversals or extensions?

Technical Update - CAC40 in downtrend. How low can it go? AEX25 and SMI20 uptrends are stretched, reversals or extensions?

Equities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

AEX 25 is struggling to build on the bullish trend and get past 928.

The index has been trading in a rising channel-like pattern that seems to be turning into a rising wedge-like pattern.
If AEX manages to break above 928, there is upside potential to 935–940 short-term, and the potential rising wedge-like pattern will be demolished.

A daily close below 927 could fuel a sell-off down to around 900. A daily close below the lower rising trendline and below 897 will confirm the rising wedge reversal pattern with downside potential to 858–850.

The bullish trend is weakening as illustrated by the declining RSI, i.e., divergence. For this trend exhaustion picture to be reversed, a daily close on RSI above the upper falling trendline is required combined with an index close above 928

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
NETH25 CFD forming a rising wedge-like pattern. RSI is indicating uptrend exhaustion, but if NETH25 breaks above 927, there is potential up to around 935–940.

A break below 916, and NETH25 is likely to test the lower rising trendline. A close below 897 could add to the selling pressure down to around 883

CAC40 closed yesterday below support at 7,812, thus closing the gap from February earlier this year. A double top pattern has been confirmed with downside potential to 7,553.

However, due to the fact that the double top pattern is not perfect—the valley in the middle is almost two minor valleys—the downside is likely to be cut short to around 7,700.

A bearish trend is confirmed with lower lows and lower highs, and the strength indicator RSI is below the 40 threshold, i.e., in negative sentiment.

The next key support area for CAC40 is 7,724–7,691. A daily close below 7,691 could see further selling pressure down to strong support at around 7,553. The rising 200 daily moving average will give some support, possibly limiting the downside for CAC40. If CAC40 closes above the peak of yesterday, i.e., above 7,932, it neutralizes the current bearish trend picture.

FRA40 CFD closed just above the 0.50 retracement and, more importantly, above key support at around 7,775.

If sellers come back pushing FRA40 below yesterday's low at 7,757, it could further fuel a sell-off down to 7,682, possibly down to strong support at 7,568. A daily close above 7,935 will neutralize the current bearish picture

SMI20 has formed a doji evening star-like top and reversal pattern (circled). RSI divergence (RSI values declined when the index climbed higher) is indicating uptrend exhaustion.

SMI is at a steep rising trend line and support at 12,046. A close below both could fuel a sell-off down to support at around 11,772.

However, the bullish trend is currently still intact and buyers are likely to try resuming the uptrend. A daily close above 12,295 will extend the bullish trend towards the 12,560 resistance level.

SWISS20 CFD: Doji Evening Star top and reversal pattern.
Tested the 0.50 retracement of the past two weeks’ bullish move and the lower rising trendline.

A daily close below the trendline and below 12,024 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 11,870–11,754. A daily close above 12,295 will cancel the top and reversal pattern and extend the uptrend towards 12,560

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992