Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25 and CAC40 uptrend quite stretched. BEL20 in strong uptrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
AEX25 and CAC40 uptrends are quite stretched indicating top and reversals
BEL20 testing resistance in strong uptrend
AEX25 uptrend seems quite stretched forming rising wedge like pattern and RSI divergence. The Index formed a Doji last week which could indicate a top and reversal. If AEX moves above and closes above the peak at 734.56 the Index is likely to extend uptrend to around 741.
If AEX closes below its lower rising trendline we should expect a reversal and correction. A correction that will be confirmed by a close below 715 and could take AEX down to around 687 i.e., 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend since October low.
BEL20 Index is testing the resistance at 3,767 just below its 200 daily SMA. The uptrend I strong supported by rising RSI with no divergence. The Index is trading in a rising channel and a bearish breakout of that pattern is likely to indicate a reversal or correction.
However, the trend is our friend for now and the trend could extend higher to 3,890 is BEL20 closes above 3,767.
However, the trend is our friend for now and the trend could extend higher to 3,890 is BEL20 closes above 3,767.
CAC40 jumped higher to be rejected at the resistance at around 6,792 forming a top and reversal pattern (Opening Black Marubozu). If CAC40 slides back to close below 6,641 the top and reversal has been confirmed and CAC could drop to 6,400-6,300 with support at 6,522.
For CAC40 to extend the uptrend a close above 6,792 is needed.
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