Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
RSI is showing divergence supporting the bottom and reversal scenario. However, S&P 500 must close above 3,907 before short-term uptrend will be confirmed. That level is also the close 0.618 retracement of September the sell-off.
However, if S&P 500 slides back and closes the gap from Tuesday bear trend is likely to resume pushing the Index below October trough at 3,585
Nasdaq 100 is back above 11K almost touching the 0.382 retracement of the September sell-off. Key resistance is at around 12,063 and the 0.618 retracement of the September sell-off and 0.382 retracement of the entire down trend since August peak. A close above 12,070 will confirm a short-term uptrend.
However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment without divergence indicating Nasdaq 100 could slide back. If it closes the gap from Tuesday morning lower lows on Nasdaq should be expected.
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