Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
DAX broke short term resistance at 12,227 Friday currently trading around the 0.7645 Fibonacci retracement at 14,560 and the 100 SMA. Bollinger bands are expanding and RSI is currently above 60 threshold which indicate bullish sentiment. IF RSI closes above 60 today more upside in DAX is to be expected. If that scenario unfolds Major key resistance at 14,925 is not unlikely to be tested.
IF RSI on the other hand fails to close above 60 sellers could return.
EuroStoxx50 closed above resistance at 3,752 Friday establishing new short term uptrend. Resistance at around 3,907 is likely to be tested. RSI testing 60 threshold and needs to close above for confirmation of upside potential.
CAC40 with close above 6,456 uptrend is confirmed. RSI still below 60, however but testing the threshold. A move to the strong resistance area at around 6,750-6,836 is not unlikely. However, if CAC40 slips back below 55 SMA and RSI does not close above 60 selling pressure could resume
AEX Amsterdam Index will confirm short term uptrend if it closes above 707 with potential to resistance at 719 and 714. RSI testing 60 threshold and needs to close above for confirmation of upside potential.
Contrary to other Indices BEL20 is struggling to get upside momentum. A close above 4,032 is needed but there will be strong resistance at around 4,127. RSI is below 50 still indicating negative sentiment.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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