Technical Update - DAX, EURO STOXX50 & AEX
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Major European Indices Range bound with negative sentiment
DAX seems to have found resistance at 14,603 and is now back below 55 SMA. The Index could be range bound between key support at 13,989 and 14,603. With RSI still showing negative sentiment not being able to close above 60 threshold, break out is likely to be to the down side.
Major key resistance is 14,953. A close above that level the over all negative picture is demolished.
EURO STOXX 50 is back below 55 SMA likely to resume down trend. Similar to DAX RSI is showing negative sentiment. A daily close below 3,792 will confirm down trend. A break above 3,955, resistance at 4,9025 will most likely be tested .
AEX Amsterdam range bound between 405 and 741. A break out of those levels needed for direction. Since RSI has not been able to close above 60 threshold it is still showing negative sentiment. Break out is therefor likely to be to the down side.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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