Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Major European Indices Range bound with negative sentiment
DAX seems to have found resistance at 14,603 and is now back below 55 SMA. The Index could be range bound between key support at 13,989 and 14,603. With RSI still showing negative sentiment not being able to close above 60 threshold, break out is likely to be to the down side.
Major key resistance is 14,953. A close above that level the over all negative picture is demolished.
EURO STOXX 50 is back below 55 SMA likely to resume down trend. Similar to DAX RSI is showing negative sentiment. A daily close below 3,792 will confirm down trend. A break above 3,955, resistance at 4,9025 will most likely be tested .
AEX Amsterdam range bound between 405 and 741. A break out of those levels needed for direction. Since RSI has not been able to close above 60 threshold it is still showing negative sentiment. Break out is therefor likely to be to the down side.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach