S&P 500 potential EPS growth paths from COVID19 growth shock

S&P 500 potential EPS growth paths from COVID19 growth shock

Equities 6 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  The COVID-19 virus may have little impact on long-term earnings growth even if the short impact could prove quite large. In order to evaluate the outlook for the S&P 500 investors must focus on the potential hit to the short-term earnings outlook and animal spirits, or risk aversion. We provide a crude model for predicting future EPS for the S&P 500 based on two GDP growth shock scenarios. It shows that the S&P 500 could be in for a tough two years in a worst-case scenario.


In yesterday’s equity update we went through the different factors that have an impact on equities and how they stack up after last week’s carnage. Our main message is that indicators suggest more pain ahead for equities, but overall any prediction comes with high degree of uncertainty. It all comes down to whether the COVID-19 virus can be contained or not. Equities reflect discounting of future cash flows and thus COVID-19 impact on those cash flows is necessary to quantify in order to make judgements on S&P 500 being mispriced or not. The long-term growth rate for profits are not impacted by a virus so the key is the short-term impact over the next two years. In this update we try to make a crude model for EPS path off two scenario of growth shocks from the COVID-19 outbreak.

Model assumptions

The model assumes that quarterly changes in S&P 500 12-month trailing log EPS can be modelled using US GDP growth y/y and quarterly changes in GDP growth. The is very crude and other variables obviously play a role, but we will get back to that later. Our model is a quantile regression model in order to capture quantile effects and not just the mean response. This provides us with a framework for assessing the prediction interval in an extreme event. We use data from Q1 1954 to fit the quantile regression.

GDP growth scenarios

Our two growth scenarios are called base- and worst-case and try to capture a “mild” shock taking US GDP growth briefly to zero percent followed up by a quick rebound to trend growth with a slight overshooting due to pent-up demand in the economy (think post 2008 financial crisis). The worst-case scenario assumes a significant GDP growth shock taking the growth rate from 2.3% in Q4 2018 to -2% by Q4 2019 superseded by a slower recovery not taking GDP growth back to trend until sometime in early 2022.

Potential S&P 500 EPS paths

In the base-case scenario the median of the predicted distributions of EPS is more or less flat in 2019 before growing slightly in 2020 leading to a three-year period (2018-2021) of stagnating EPS growth for the S&P 500. In this scenario risk aversion would likely increase holding back any earnings multiple expansion. In the worst-case scenario the median path takes down EPS by 10.5% which significantly more than the 6.2% EPS decline during the China/EM slowdown in 2015-2016 but nothing like the 49% decline during the financial crisis.

The plot also shows the 25% and 75% percentile paths for the two scenarios. The first observation is that that potential range of outcomes is large in both cases which reflects that our two variables cannot fully explain quarterly variance in earnings. This leads us to the next phase which is where art takes over from the model. Where do we think the EPS path ends up in the predicted distributions?

Our naïve forecast is that the “true” GDP growth path will be something in the middle of our two scenarios based on our view that the virus will almost impossible to contain and that human behaviour in a global pandemic will create a significant demand shock to the economy. Most of the unknowns related to COVID-19 have larger downside than upside risks and thus our view is that the EPS path could end up around the 25% percentile. Taking the average of the two scenarios put the EPS decline over the next two years at minus 28%. This very negative outlook reflect severe nonlinear effects on the downside from human behaviour (demand shock) and as a result credit events (bankruptcies, investment shock), and lastly prolonged supply disruption in a global supply chain that has not spread its production capacity risk properly but concentrated it in Asia.

Impact on S&P 500

The average of the two 25% percentile EPS paths translate into S&P 500 EPS at $108.76 by Q4 2021. Since 1954 the average P/E ratio has been 16.6, but if we assume that the P/E ratio will only contract from current levels to around 18x as low yields and low inflation have a positive impact on the earnings multiple then the impact on the S&P 500 will be significant.

This earnings multiple combined with EPS tracking the average of the two 25% percentile paths leads to S&P 500 at around 2000 in Q4 2021 (that’s 35% below today’s level). If we use the average of the two median paths then EPS will be $145.93 in Q4 2021 and with an earnings multiple of 18x then S&P 500 is priced at around 2600 (that’s 16% below today’s level).

You may think it sounds a bit too crazy but remember that the dynamite here is a valuation multiple contraction reflecting an impact on risk aversion by investors. If you believe P/E ratio will stay unchanged then of course the impact on S&P 500 will be significantly less from current levels. But remember we don’t know the future. This is an exercise in risk management and providing a broader spectrum of outcomes than what you are probably thinking.

Our next update will go through a multi-stage growth model for pricing S&P 500 to see what the current decline in S&P 500 tells us of the market pricing of the expected earnings decline.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992