Head of Equity Strategy
For a complete list of five-year price charts for all stocks in Saxo's 2018 Equity World Cup, click here.
The 2018 FIFA World Cup is powering on and so is our Saxo Equity World Cup. After 23 matches (see results below) we are now beginning to see a picture emerging. Most matches in our game have been a good reverse indicator of the winning team in the real World Cup.
The tables below show the groups in our game as of yesterday's matches. The clear trend is that emerging market countries/stocks have done the best except for one standout developed market – Denmark (represented by Novo Nordisk) – which is up 5.2% in USD terms as the Danish company yesterday announced good data on its oral diabetes drug semaglutide, showing promising results on weight reduction compared to Merck’s product Januvia.
In our introduction we highlighted Colombia (Ecopetrol) as a potential winner based on strong price momentum in the days before the tournament, but interestingly enough Ecopetrol is the worst performer since 13 June in USD terms and is down 8.3% as EM equities have been sold off broadly and are also affected by worries over oil prices in a trade war escalation scenario. Our expectation for oil prices is mildly positive over the coming two weeks. Based on current performance (“stock fitness”) Denmark looks to have good chances of go far in the tournament. We will give updates again next week.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
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