Market Strategist
Summary: Half of the biggest 500 US companies have reported earnings results, mostly beating expectations. The key themes of rising inflation, interest rates, energy prices and commodity prices have hugely been reflected in companies results. By identifying the trends, individuals can stay nimble and make necessary portfolio adjustments. Equally with ASX confession season just kicking off, it is also important to know what to expect and what sectors to watch. Here we cover everything you need to know.
US earnings season update
Don’t blink. Equities are making wild moves in either direction as we’re in a fragile, pivotal time, as investors digest day-to-day quarterly earnings results, while holding their breath for the Fed’s next move on rates later this month.
So far this US earnings season results have been better than expected, which supported the rally from the January low. The S&P500 (SP500.I) rose 6% from 27 Jan 2022, but then quickly fell 2.4% on Thursday, falling below the 100-day average. US equities are out of correction territory, down 7% from the high, but sentiment is fragile and downside pressure remains, as inflation is at record levels and is likely to worsen with the expected rise in oil prices. And if the Fed is more aggressive and raises rates more than expected, wind could again be taken out of the sails of tech names, high PE stocks and companies with high debt -to-earnings levels.
However equities are giving mixed messages; the technical signals suggest the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are in oversold territory, which is why retail investors are buying the dip. Meanwhile institutional investors are remaining prudent and building portfolios to weather the 2022 storms; buying into energy names, mining stocks and agricultural companies (these sectors are the best performers this year in the The S&P500 (SP500.I))
What do you need to know about Thursday’s US session? Facebook owner Meta (NYSE) reported weaker than expected results sending its shares 26% lower. Spotify (SPOT) sank 17%. In afterhours trade the mood lifted though… Amazon (AMZN) shares jumped 14%. Its first quarter sales forecasts were weaker than expected, but traders were focused on Amazon boosting Prime membership costs, which will pump up operating income more than forecast. Also afterhours, Twitter (TWTR) shares jumped 8%, Etsy (ETSY) rose 7% on buoyed sentiment. NewsCorp (NWSA) rose 7% on stronger than expected earnings, with digital real estate revenue up 35% in the quarter on strong listings under REA.
What are the big picture earnings numbers telling us? Over half (271) of the S&P500 companies reported quarterly results. Most beat expectations, with sales growth averaging 16% and average earnings growth at 30%. If you look at the key themes, industrials, oil and gas, mining stocks have produced the strongest earnings growth, and are guiding for stronger earnings ahead. While the sectors that typically suffer in higher inflation, wages and interest rate environments, (real estate) have reported the least earnings growth. Interesting, I expect the same theme to play out for the Australian earnings season that’s just kicked off.
So far in the US
For daily analysis on US equities, follow our head of equity strategy.
Now, what can you expect for the ASX Earnings Season after looking at the US lessons?
The Aussie share market ASX200 (ASXSP200.I) has rallied up off its 27 Jan 2022 low, gaining 3% since, and is down 7% from the high, meaning it’s no longer in correction territory. Driving the rebound, is better than expected US earnings results and local reporting numbers too, after full year reporting season kicked off this week.
What you need know about Aussie equities now? The ASX200 like the US’s S&P500 remains fragile and at a pivotal point, as investors digest earnings results and await the outcome of the Fed’s meeting later this month. The ASX200 trades below the 100, and 200 day moving average. This week the market saw a technical event triggered which could imply further downside is ahead; - the 50 day moving average fell below the 200 day. The last time this trigger occurred was in March 2020, and the market fell 37%. However, this time is different. Why? The market doesn’t not appear to be flagging the same technical overbought signals as it did in March 2020. So stay on your toes ahead of the US Fed meeting.
What are the big picture Australian earnings numbers to watch? Soft earnings growth of 12% is expected, very different to the same time last year’s 26% surge in earnings. However, it’s important to look at the key themes, industrials, oil and gas, mining stocks, which have produced the strongest earnings in the US, while the US real estate sector underperformed. So these themes will likely play out for the Australian too. What else to watch? Remember, the fundamentals…earnings growth typically drives shares price growth, along with earnings upgrades. So if results are better than expected, equities typically rally, if they are weaker, you will likely see a pull back. So what sectors should you watch?
Next week, I’ll cover some of the stocks I’m watching in resources and energy sectors and why. But for now, here are the companies reporting next week.
ASX results calendar (days are in AEST)
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For prior Australian market and APAC updates - click here.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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