Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Friday S&P 500 closed below the short term support at around 4.631 and followed that up with a gap yesterday testing the short term rising trend line. Another push below and we could see the leading US Index test the 4.495 support which could be crucial for a bull/bear scenario. A close below could fuel a sell off down to around 4.400-4.300.
This potential bearish scenario has been in the making for some time. Divergence on RSI has indicated that the uptrend was nearing its end.
The S&P 500 future/US500 CFD has continued the bounced from the closing session yesterday. If it can close above 4.630 there is a chance for a small year end rally.
Nasdaq 100 is desperately trying to hold on to the bullish scenario but seems to be failing. It closed below the support at around 15.638. However, despite RSI showing divergence in November is hasn’t yet broken below 40 threshold which would indicate bearish sentiment.
Was it just a false break and can bulls push the Index back above 15.638. Next few days could be decisive.
Nasdaq100 future/USNAS100 CFD closed above its support at around 15.540 and is bouncing a bit further this morning.
Interesting to see if it can claw its way back above the 16K which could lead to a small year end rally.
A close below support at around 15.540 could lead to a sell-off down to around 15.000-14.500.
Last week I mentioned the Small cap index Russell 2000 was likely the leading indicator for the overall stock market. It is still holding on above its support at around 2.130. The support seems to be crucial for Bull/Bear scenario to play out.
DAX found support at 15.100. the rebound from here seems to continue today at the opening but is fading at bit after a few hours of trading. If DAX closes below yesterday’s close at 15.239 we could see a new attempt to break the 15.100 support. A close below the support will confirm a bearish trend and the Index is likely to test 14.804 support.
RSI and MACD are both bearish and if we see RSI back below 40 there is a strong indication the 15.100 support will come under massive pressure.
For DAX to reverse the likely bearish scenario to play out a close above 15.780 is needed.
I don’t often write about the Danish Equity market but since I have given an interview to the Danish finance newspaper Børsen about OMX C25, here are the main point:
1.800 is the support to look out for in OMX C25. A close below the support will confirm a down trend. Adding to that, with the bounce at the end of the session yesterday and today being back above 200 SMA the Index is showing resilience to Bears i.e. the Index seems to be range bound between 1.800 and 1.950.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)