Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Friday S&P 500 closed below the short term support at around 4.631 and followed that up with a gap yesterday testing the short term rising trend line. Another push below and we could see the leading US Index test the 4.495 support which could be crucial for a bull/bear scenario. A close below could fuel a sell off down to around 4.400-4.300.
This potential bearish scenario has been in the making for some time. Divergence on RSI has indicated that the uptrend was nearing its end.
The S&P 500 future/US500 CFD has continued the bounced from the closing session yesterday. If it can close above 4.630 there is a chance for a small year end rally.
Nasdaq 100 is desperately trying to hold on to the bullish scenario but seems to be failing. It closed below the support at around 15.638. However, despite RSI showing divergence in November is hasn’t yet broken below 40 threshold which would indicate bearish sentiment.
Was it just a false break and can bulls push the Index back above 15.638. Next few days could be decisive.
Nasdaq100 future/USNAS100 CFD closed above its support at around 15.540 and is bouncing a bit further this morning.
Interesting to see if it can claw its way back above the 16K which could lead to a small year end rally.
A close below support at around 15.540 could lead to a sell-off down to around 15.000-14.500.
Last week I mentioned the Small cap index Russell 2000 was likely the leading indicator for the overall stock market. It is still holding on above its support at around 2.130. The support seems to be crucial for Bull/Bear scenario to play out.
DAX found support at 15.100. the rebound from here seems to continue today at the opening but is fading at bit after a few hours of trading. If DAX closes below yesterday’s close at 15.239 we could see a new attempt to break the 15.100 support. A close below the support will confirm a bearish trend and the Index is likely to test 14.804 support.
RSI and MACD are both bearish and if we see RSI back below 40 there is a strong indication the 15.100 support will come under massive pressure.
For DAX to reverse the likely bearish scenario to play out a close above 15.780 is needed.
I don’t often write about the Danish Equity market but since I have given an interview to the Danish finance newspaper Børsen about OMX C25, here are the main point:
1.800 is the support to look out for in OMX C25. A close below the support will confirm a down trend. Adding to that, with the bounce at the end of the session yesterday and today being back above 200 SMA the Index is showing resilience to Bears i.e. the Index seems to be range bound between 1.800 and 1.950.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.