Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel

Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel

Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently in the middle of a rising channel formation. This is occuring, however, under MACD and RSI divergence which indicates an imbalance in the uptrend; the value on RSI and MACD in June is higher than the short- term peak in July and the peak and current all-time high a couple of days ago.

Trend and strength indicators are not fully supporting the trend. Divergence is a warning sign that a correction is due but it should be noted that imbalances in the financial markets can go on for quite some time and a new all-time high is not impossible. It cannot go on for too long, though. 

Volume is not supporting the higher levels either since they are flat at best but a closer look reveals that volume during up days is lower than down days, a sign of buying fatigue.
I will maintain my cautious bullish view as long as the Index stays above the lower rising trendline and has not shown me a top and reversal pattern. Be cautious, though, as we are now in September which is a month a lot of fund managers use to clean house – i.e. get rid of poorly performing stocks before the last quarter.

That in and of itself can cause some volatility. 

Note that the divergences are much more pronounced on the weekly chart. 

During the roaring market in January, RSI topped out at 83.56 while the current RSI value is around 68 – massive divergence. It's the same with the MACD indicator. We have to go back to the 1990s during the dot-com bubble to see RSI values above 80.  

During the past years, the Nasdaq 100 seems to have formed a rising wedge-like pattern. If it is indeed a wedge, it is very close to breakout. A bearish break could take the Index down to at least 7,000 but potentially down to the lowest level in the wedge around 6,500  
Nasdaq 100 (daily)
Nasdaq 100 (daily, source: Saxo Bank)
Nasdaq 100 (weekly)
Nasdaq 100 (weekly, source: Saxo Bank)


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992