Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel

Nasdaq 100 in a rising channel

Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently in the middle of a rising channel formation. This is occuring, however, under MACD and RSI divergence which indicates an imbalance in the uptrend; the value on RSI and MACD in June is higher than the short- term peak in July and the peak and current all-time high a couple of days ago.

Trend and strength indicators are not fully supporting the trend. Divergence is a warning sign that a correction is due but it should be noted that imbalances in the financial markets can go on for quite some time and a new all-time high is not impossible. It cannot go on for too long, though. 

Volume is not supporting the higher levels either since they are flat at best but a closer look reveals that volume during up days is lower than down days, a sign of buying fatigue.
I will maintain my cautious bullish view as long as the Index stays above the lower rising trendline and has not shown me a top and reversal pattern. Be cautious, though, as we are now in September which is a month a lot of fund managers use to clean house – i.e. get rid of poorly performing stocks before the last quarter.

That in and of itself can cause some volatility. 

Note that the divergences are much more pronounced on the weekly chart. 

During the roaring market in January, RSI topped out at 83.56 while the current RSI value is around 68 – massive divergence. It's the same with the MACD indicator. We have to go back to the 1990s during the dot-com bubble to see RSI values above 80.  

During the past years, the Nasdaq 100 seems to have formed a rising wedge-like pattern. If it is indeed a wedge, it is very close to breakout. A bearish break could take the Index down to at least 7,000 but potentially down to the lowest level in the wedge around 6,500  
Nasdaq 100 (daily)
Nasdaq 100 (daily, source: Saxo Bank)
Nasdaq 100 (weekly)
Nasdaq 100 (weekly, source: Saxo Bank)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.