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London Quick Take – 8 Dec - Fed day approaches, Oracle earnings test AI vibe, Magnum shares start trading
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
Elsewhere, China's trade surplus topped $1tn for the first time as the country's manufacturers rerouted to non-US markets. Exports from China to the EU rose almost 15%, with total exports up 5.9%. Germany passed the pensions bill by just three votes after seven of Chancellor Merz’s own MPs voted against and two abstained.
Stocks
Netflix takeover of Warner Bros ...Trump now saying he has antitrust concerns ... Hollywood doesn’t want it...I can this deal being killed off.
Oracle takes the AI-trade baton today with earnings coming after the close. The key is the financing requirements for this massive AI buildout...this is going to provide some vibes for the AI trade this week. Investors will be looking for some details on the debt financing for its $300bn OpenAI deal. The stock has taken a beating since its massive spike and now sits at the 200-day moving average level.
Meta recaptured its 200-day moving average on Friday after stepping down spending on the Metaverse. Zuck always knows when to pivot and this shift is a clear positive.
Magnum force: Following its spin-off from Unilever, Magnum Ice Cream Company (ticker MICC) opened on the Amsterdam exchange at €12.20 per share, before climbing +5% to trade above its €12.80 reference price. Shares started trading in London at around 1,110p before rising to around 1,136p in positive early trade. Magnum has a fifth (21 per cent)of the global retail ice cream market in 2024, making it the largest ice cream company in the world by retail sales. It is number one by retail sales in nine of its 10 largest markets (the United States, Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, France, the Philippines and Indonesia) and number two in China.
Focus on the Fed: The chances are the Fed cuts this week, according to the market, which places the odds on the FOMC voting to lower the federal funds rate by 25bps at 90%. That was not the clear message from the Fed last time. After cutting in November, Fed chair Jay Powell cautioned that a further reduction in December was “not a foregone conclusion”. But there have been softer labour market indicators since and on Friday the delayed September PCE inflation was lower than expected. I felt that the delay to the November CPI inflation report until after the Fed meeting this week was a sign that they would wait, but the market has other convictions.
So, the immediate focus is on whether we get the cut and how policymakers swung amid what is an unusually wide disagreement among policymakers over the trajectory and terminus for rates. The key bit for the market will be in chair Powell’s press conference – were there dissenters, and how do policymakers view the balance of risks between employment and inflation at 3%? The latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections may be important. But the most important thing is really about next year – what does a new chair do? Can he/she really ‘run it hot’ in sync with the administration? These are questions that won’t be answered by any economic forecasts (which are a less-than-reliable guess by policymakers at the best times). Following the mess of the government shutdown we are still trying to figure out what the US economy looks like now let alone what it will look like next year.
Wall Street stocks rose Friday as the S&P 500 notched a fourth-straight day of gains, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also firmer after the inflation report seemed to give the all-clear for the Fed to cut on Wednesday – even if it was quite old data. European stocks are flat to start trading on Monday.
So, the immediate focus is on whether we get the cut and how policymakers swung amid what is an unusually wide disagreement among policymakers over the trajectory and terminus for rates. The key bit for the market will be in chair Powell’s press conference – were there dissenters, and how do policymakers view the balance of risks between employment and inflation at 3%? The latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections may be important. But the most important thing is really about next year – what does a new chair do? Can he/she really ‘run it hot’ in sync with the administration? These are questions that won’t be answered by any economic forecasts (which are a less-than-reliable guess by policymakers at the best times). Following the mess of the government shutdown we are still trying to figure out what the US economy looks like now let alone what it will look like next year.
Wall Street stocks rose Friday as the S&P 500 notched a fourth-straight day of gains, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also firmer after the inflation report seemed to give the all-clear for the Fed to cut on Wednesday – even if it was quite old data. European stocks are flat to start trading on Monday.
Elsewhere, China's trade surplus topped $1tn for the first time as the country's manufacturers rerouted to non-US markets. Exports from China to the EU rose almost 15%, with total exports up 5.9%. Germany passed the pensions bill by just three votes after seven of Chancellor Merz’s own MPs voted against and two abstained.
Stocks
Netflix takeover of Warner Bros ...Trump now saying he has antitrust concerns ... Hollywood doesn’t want it...I can this deal being killed off.
Oracle takes the AI-trade baton today with earnings coming after the close. The key is the financing requirements for this massive AI buildout...this is going to provide some vibes for the AI trade this week. Investors will be looking for some details on the debt financing for its $300bn OpenAI deal. The stock has taken a beating since its massive spike and now sits at the 200-day moving average level.
Meta recaptured its 200-day moving average on Friday after stepping down spending on the Metaverse. Zuck always knows when to pivot and this shift is a clear positive.
Magnum force: Following its spin-off from Unilever, Magnum Ice Cream Company (ticker MICC) opened on the Amsterdam exchange at €12.20 per share, before climbing +5% to trade above its €12.80 reference price. Shares started trading in London at around 1,110p before rising to around 1,136p in positive early trade. Magnum has a fifth (21 per cent)of the global retail ice cream market in 2024, making it the largest ice cream company in the world by retail sales. It is number one by retail sales in nine of its 10 largest markets (the United States, Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, France, the Philippines and Indonesia) and number two in China.