Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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London Quick Take - Friday - Trump set to name Kevin Warsh next Fed chair, Apple posts 'staggering' quarter and metals hit again
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
- Trump expected to name Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, also signs deal with Democrats to avoid shutdown and says it's "very dangerous" for UK to do business with China
- Metals slide again after flash crash yesterday sent copper, gold and silver tumbling
- Apple posts record earnings on ‘staggering’ iPhone demand
Yesterday witnessed insane volatility in metals markets and it’s back again today with silver –12% and gold –6%, while copper is –3% to below $600. Yesterday, copper prices had surged 10% to new record highs, silver hit a record above $121 and gold attacked $5,600 as it too hit a fresh all-time high - before prices cratered under the weight of their own excess. It had hallmarks of a technical selloff rather than a fundamental change. We are seeing extreme volatility in metals and FX markets which is leading to serious dislocations and may well gnaw away at equity market sentiment. The sharp reversal in metals took the shine off the FTSE 100's rally, with the index dropping sharply in tandem with the move in metals to finish barely higher on the day. Earlier the FTSE 100 had hit a fresh record high as mining stocks were propelled higher.
Gold had been shifting to the downside through the session after approaching $5,600 before selling really took off a little time after 3pm, generating liquidations and a momentum of its own, with prices tumbling about 8% in just a few minutes to a low of $5,023/oz, over 10% below the earlier all-time high. Prices stabilised somewhat and then moved above $5,300 within about 90 minutes of the flash crash. Moves in silver were even more exaggerated as prices tumbled 12% from a high above $121.67 to $106.67 in short order before rallying back to $113 by 4:30pm.
The pressure is back on this morning. Copper is down another 3% to $600, around 9% below yesterday’s highs. Gold tanked to $4,939 in early trading in London before climbing back to $5,100, while silver took a $103 handle. Both have since moved down again to $5,000 and $100 respectively...very volatile, try to keep up. A lot of speculative positioning to unwind and it could get quite nasty. We need to see what kind of damage this move has done – it may be the start of a more sober assessment by market participants about the reasons for being bullish on gold, silver etc. long term fundamentals remain unchanged but the over-exuberance may be over.
Apple announced record earnings thanks to stunning iPhone demand. Q1 revenue came in at $143.76bn vs $138.4bn estimate, with Greater China and iPhone revenue comfortably beating estimates after “unprecedented iPhone demand” in the quarter. CEO Tim Cook called demand for the iPhone 17 “staggering”. Sales in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong rose 38%, while iPhone revenues jumped 23%. Service revenue growth was 14% and the active user base of phones, Macs and iPads rose from 2.35bn to 2.5bn. Shares climbed with guidance for revenue growth of 13-16% this quarter but the market reaction was really rather muted because of AI - where is Apple on AI? No one knows. Meta and Alphabet seem to be way ahead.
European stock markets are off to a mixed start. The DAX has added about 0.8% after taking a tumble yesterday on a dreadful day for heavyweight SAP. The FTSE 100 is flat having rallied to a record high in the prior session before ending up only a bit higher. It’s now going to be a tricky phase for some of the miners who’ve been bid up on the rally in gold and copper etc.
Yesterday saw big swings on the S&P 500 which ended the day about 100pts off the lows at 6,870. Meta rallied 10% and Microsoft dived 10% as divergent narratives about AI spend and revenue growth emerged at the heart of the Mag7. We saw concern across the software space as investors worry they are not moving quick enough - ServiceNow fell 10% despite strong earnings, Salesforce down 6%. Note the IGV software ETF was down 5% and is now 22% below the recent peak - AI is killing software narrative won the day because of Microsoft's weak quarter. Memory storage is super hot - SanDisk shares jumped 20% on blowout earnings.
Finally, SpaceX is said to be weighing a merger with Tesla and an alternative tie-up with xAI ahead of a possible IPO, per sources, as Elon Musk considers consolidation; talks are said to be exploratory. But this would complete the transition of Tesla from carmarker to its AI-robo future. Tesla shares +3% after-hours after falling that much yesterday.
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