Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
London Quick Take - 29 Jan - Fresh records for gold, silver, copper; Oil at 4-month high on Iran tension; Meta shines amid mixed report card for tech earnings; Lloyds raises performance targets
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
TL/DR: Gold, silver and copper fresh records, oil up as US mulls Iran strikes, dollar wobbles again after Fed holds rates, SPX touches 7k, Meta delivers, Microsoft disappoints, Tesla pivots and Lloyds gets more profitable.
The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday. This only measures the S&P 500 in dollar terms. Valued in gold, which also keeps hitting fresh all-time highs, SPX is looking very cheap. The broad index finished flat though as investors digested a cautious Fed that left rates on hold as expected, and girded for a triple-whammy of major tech earnings. Lots to get through...
Meta shares jumped as much as 10% in after-hours trade after record revenues soothed concerns it's overspending on AI as capex levels could double this year to $135bn. Revs +24% and net income +9% were easy beats. The company is seeing a "wave" of "AI acceleration", CEO Mark Zuckerberg said. I said last year I think it's well placed to be at forefront of AI monetisation as the tech can seriously improve ad efficacy.
Microsoft took a hit with a one-two punch from slowing cloud sales and higher spending. Shares fell 5%. It's a sign investor are saying 'show me money'. The 17% rise in revenues to a record $81bn was not enough to offset a 66% leap in data centre spending.
Tesla revenues fell for the first time and the company plans to trim its model range, scrapping the Model X and Model S to focus more on AI ...the stock rose because it's no longer a car company. Investors are much more interested in robotics and AI than cars now so they liked plans to convert its California factory to produce its Optimus robot.
Nvidia jumped after strong earnings from heavyweight chip stocks ASML and SK Hynix and reports China has approved sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Meanwhile, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon are said to be in talks to invest up to $60bn in OpenAI...yet more circular economics. The Nasdaq ended slightly higher, while the Dow Jones was flat with UnitedHealth rallied 4% after its tanking the day before.
The Fed was unchanged, but Waller joined Miran voting for a 25bps cut. Chair Powell said “the economy has once again surprised us with its strength”. The Fed seems to be in pause mode now and something will need to change to alter its opinion that the economy seems to be doing just fine. That change could be a new chair later this year.
The US dollar bounced then gave up gains... lots of talk here and we did see a sharp move on Tuesday but it came back on Wednesday, before trimming its gains. Yesterday I wondered if the administration would walk back some of the comments/vibes from Trump on the dollar and sure enough Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated in an interview with CNBC that the White House continues to pursue a ‘strong dollar policy’. That gave a lift to the dollar but some of the Bessent boost is fading again. It’s important to note that historically the dollar is not that weak – currently DXY is just marginally below its 10yr average dating back to the 70s having traded above it for the last dozen years.
Over here, bulls were out in force early Thursday with the FTSE 100 rising over 0.5%, catching yesterday’s decline, with banks and miners leading the gains as precious metal prices continued to soar and Lloyds and 3i delivered positive results.
Lloyds annual profits rose 12%, beating forecasts, while the bank also raised its performance forecast. The outlook for profitability in 2026 is the most eye-catching element from these robust results. Lloyds reckons it can hit a return on tangible equity of 16% this year, up from 12.9% in 2025, as Q4 Rote rose to 15.7%. The strategy to diversify income streams away from the interest rates to things like pensions, wealth and insurance, started under CEO Charlie Nunn in 2022, is working. Shares shouldn’t be lower on this. Net interest income was up 6%, while income from other sources rose 9%. 3i shares jumped 14% as it reported a 20% total return in the nine months to the end of December, boosted by rapid sales growth at discounter Action. Miners rallied sharply too with Antofagasta +6.6% as its production report delivered a 9% rise in copper output. Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo also rose strongly metal prices soared.
On this, gold, copper and silver keep punching out record highs but this has all the hallmarks of a speculative squeeze that is increasing disorderly, volatile and dangerous. We know the backdrop and solid fundamentals to this trade – debasement and rush to hard assets etc - but the moves are highly unusual. The volatility can be self-sustaining as market makers become reluctant to take and hold positions, leading to thinner liquidity and greater volatility. Spot gold approached $5,600 before backing off a bit and silver hit a new high above $120, before it too trimmed gains to take a $115 handle. Copper also surged 7% to fresh record highs.
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is on for its strongest monthly gain in decades, up 15% this month. It’s not just precious metals – oil prices have risen sharply on geopolitical tensions and kicked on further to 4-month highs, towards $70 for Brent (continuous) and $64.50 for WTI (continuous) as markets eye potential military attacks by the US on Iran. Sources suggest Trump is weighing all kinds of options – there are multiple plausible scenarios and markets are on edge for disruption to supplies.
The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday. This only measures the S&P 500 in dollar terms. Valued in gold, which also keeps hitting fresh all-time highs, SPX is looking very cheap. The broad index finished flat though as investors digested a cautious Fed that left rates on hold as expected, and girded for a triple-whammy of major tech earnings. Lots to get through...
Meta shares jumped as much as 10% in after-hours trade after record revenues soothed concerns it's overspending on AI as capex levels could double this year to $135bn. Revs +24% and net income +9% were easy beats. The company is seeing a "wave" of "AI acceleration", CEO Mark Zuckerberg said. I said last year I think it's well placed to be at forefront of AI monetisation as the tech can seriously improve ad efficacy.
Microsoft took a hit with a one-two punch from slowing cloud sales and higher spending. Shares fell 5%. It's a sign investor are saying 'show me money'. The 17% rise in revenues to a record $81bn was not enough to offset a 66% leap in data centre spending.
Tesla revenues fell for the first time and the company plans to trim its model range, scrapping the Model X and Model S to focus more on AI ...the stock rose because it's no longer a car company. Investors are much more interested in robotics and AI than cars now so they liked plans to convert its California factory to produce its Optimus robot.
Nvidia jumped after strong earnings from heavyweight chip stocks ASML and SK Hynix and reports China has approved sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Meanwhile, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon are said to be in talks to invest up to $60bn in OpenAI...yet more circular economics. The Nasdaq ended slightly higher, while the Dow Jones was flat with UnitedHealth rallied 4% after its tanking the day before.
The Fed was unchanged, but Waller joined Miran voting for a 25bps cut. Chair Powell said “the economy has once again surprised us with its strength”. The Fed seems to be in pause mode now and something will need to change to alter its opinion that the economy seems to be doing just fine. That change could be a new chair later this year.
The US dollar bounced then gave up gains... lots of talk here and we did see a sharp move on Tuesday but it came back on Wednesday, before trimming its gains. Yesterday I wondered if the administration would walk back some of the comments/vibes from Trump on the dollar and sure enough Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated in an interview with CNBC that the White House continues to pursue a ‘strong dollar policy’. That gave a lift to the dollar but some of the Bessent boost is fading again. It’s important to note that historically the dollar is not that weak – currently DXY is just marginally below its 10yr average dating back to the 70s having traded above it for the last dozen years.
Over here, bulls were out in force early Thursday with the FTSE 100 rising over 0.5%, catching yesterday’s decline, with banks and miners leading the gains as precious metal prices continued to soar and Lloyds and 3i delivered positive results.
Lloyds annual profits rose 12%, beating forecasts, while the bank also raised its performance forecast. The outlook for profitability in 2026 is the most eye-catching element from these robust results. Lloyds reckons it can hit a return on tangible equity of 16% this year, up from 12.9% in 2025, as Q4 Rote rose to 15.7%. The strategy to diversify income streams away from the interest rates to things like pensions, wealth and insurance, started under CEO Charlie Nunn in 2022, is working. Shares shouldn’t be lower on this. Net interest income was up 6%, while income from other sources rose 9%. 3i shares jumped 14% as it reported a 20% total return in the nine months to the end of December, boosted by rapid sales growth at discounter Action. Miners rallied sharply too with Antofagasta +6.6% as its production report delivered a 9% rise in copper output. Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo also rose strongly metal prices soared.
On this, gold, copper and silver keep punching out record highs but this has all the hallmarks of a speculative squeeze that is increasing disorderly, volatile and dangerous. We know the backdrop and solid fundamentals to this trade – debasement and rush to hard assets etc - but the moves are highly unusual. The volatility can be self-sustaining as market makers become reluctant to take and hold positions, leading to thinner liquidity and greater volatility. Spot gold approached $5,600 before backing off a bit and silver hit a new high above $120, before it too trimmed gains to take a $115 handle. Copper also surged 7% to fresh record highs.
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is on for its strongest monthly gain in decades, up 15% this month. It’s not just precious metals – oil prices have risen sharply on geopolitical tensions and kicked on further to 4-month highs, towards $70 for Brent (continuous) and $64.50 for WTI (continuous) as markets eye potential military attacks by the US on Iran. Sources suggest Trump is weighing all kinds of options – there are multiple plausible scenarios and markets are on edge for disruption to supplies.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...