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London Quick Take - 27 Jan - Trade deals, tariffs and earnings focus + was that the top in gold and silver?
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
European stocks dipped as the EU struck a trade deal with India; Asian equities rallied to new highs as markets shrugged off Trump’s latest tariff threats; and US equity indices climbed yesterday as investors looked to megacap tech earnings playing out positively this week.
The Kospi in South Korea rallied over 2% to new highs while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan put on 1% to a new high, even as Trump said he would raise tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber from 15% to 25% due to delays in Seoul ratifying the trade deal struck with the US in October. The threat worked – the ruling party said it would pass a special act to sign off the trade deal by the end of February, prompting the rally. It comes after Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canada – increasingly aggressive trade policy switches that is playing out in a weaker dollar, albeit the greenback has strengthened a touch after dipping to a four-month low yesterday.
The FTSE 100 added about 0.25% in early trade Tuesday with financials looking positive and mining stocks pulling back as precious metals whipsaw. Both the CAC in Paris and DAX in Frankfurt dipped after initial gains, though these are modest moves either way and they remain hugging the flatline essentially. Wall Street finished the session on Monday higher, with the S&P 500 rising half of a percent, led by gains for Microsoft, Apple and Meta ahead of their earnings reports this week. Tesla, which also reports this week, pulled back 3%. All 4 are on the block should investors start to doubt the pay off in AI investments. Boeing, UnitedHealth and General Motors are on the slate today. CoreWeave shares surged after Nvidia bought $2bn in stock to accelerate AI rollout plans.
Attention is also on this week’s Fed meeting – no change expected – and the potential nomination of the next chair of the US central bank by President Trump. Markets odds on BlackRock’s Rick Rieder have shortened drastically in recent days. He has explicitly said interest rates should be lower and anchored this in terms of real-world impacts on consumers, placing emphasis on the way the technology is reshaping the economy and the labour market. He thinks the Fed is relying too heavily on inflation data that is too slow to reflect what’s actually going on. He could be the guy Trump needs that doesn’t come with the association implicit with a couple of the other candidates that suggests the end of Fed independence.
Silver traded in a +10% range yesterday, from a high above $117 to a low at $102, leaving bears and bulls caught out. The gravestone doji candle is indicative of a bearish reversal at the top of an uptrend, but prices are pushing up aggressively this morning after a solid session overnight saw it rise from around $102 to $113. Gold also marked a potential top with a gravestone doji candle yesterday with the high for spot prices in at $5,110, before pulling about $100. Price action has also moved aggressively to the upside today, however. Extreme volatility in gold and silver will persist until we get some shakedown and reset. If a new high is not made in gold the $5,000 is first in line before the 23.6% retracement area of the rally since Oct is around $4,821. The 50% retracement of the rally since July '25 sits about on $4,500, which would equate to a 11-12% move off the highs, which is in line with the pullback seen last Oct when the MACD indicator was as elevated (or slightly less so) than it is now.
The Kospi in South Korea rallied over 2% to new highs while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan put on 1% to a new high, even as Trump said he would raise tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber from 15% to 25% due to delays in Seoul ratifying the trade deal struck with the US in October. The threat worked – the ruling party said it would pass a special act to sign off the trade deal by the end of February, prompting the rally. It comes after Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canada – increasingly aggressive trade policy switches that is playing out in a weaker dollar, albeit the greenback has strengthened a touch after dipping to a four-month low yesterday.
The FTSE 100 added about 0.25% in early trade Tuesday with financials looking positive and mining stocks pulling back as precious metals whipsaw. Both the CAC in Paris and DAX in Frankfurt dipped after initial gains, though these are modest moves either way and they remain hugging the flatline essentially. Wall Street finished the session on Monday higher, with the S&P 500 rising half of a percent, led by gains for Microsoft, Apple and Meta ahead of their earnings reports this week. Tesla, which also reports this week, pulled back 3%. All 4 are on the block should investors start to doubt the pay off in AI investments. Boeing, UnitedHealth and General Motors are on the slate today. CoreWeave shares surged after Nvidia bought $2bn in stock to accelerate AI rollout plans.
Attention is also on this week’s Fed meeting – no change expected – and the potential nomination of the next chair of the US central bank by President Trump. Markets odds on BlackRock’s Rick Rieder have shortened drastically in recent days. He has explicitly said interest rates should be lower and anchored this in terms of real-world impacts on consumers, placing emphasis on the way the technology is reshaping the economy and the labour market. He thinks the Fed is relying too heavily on inflation data that is too slow to reflect what’s actually going on. He could be the guy Trump needs that doesn’t come with the association implicit with a couple of the other candidates that suggests the end of Fed independence.
Silver traded in a +10% range yesterday, from a high above $117 to a low at $102, leaving bears and bulls caught out. The gravestone doji candle is indicative of a bearish reversal at the top of an uptrend, but prices are pushing up aggressively this morning after a solid session overnight saw it rise from around $102 to $113. Gold also marked a potential top with a gravestone doji candle yesterday with the high for spot prices in at $5,110, before pulling about $100. Price action has also moved aggressively to the upside today, however. Extreme volatility in gold and silver will persist until we get some shakedown and reset. If a new high is not made in gold the $5,000 is first in line before the 23.6% retracement area of the rally since Oct is around $4,821. The 50% retracement of the rally since July '25 sits about on $4,500, which would equate to a 11-12% move off the highs, which is in line with the pullback seen last Oct when the MACD indicator was as elevated (or slightly less so) than it is now.
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