Get Ready for Nvidia Stock to Move on Earnings

• Nvidia to report Q1 earnings on 28 May after market closes

• EPS expected at $0.88 on $43.26bn revenues

• China headwinds and margins in focus

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Nvidia is set to report first quarter earnings on Wednesday, 28 may, after the market closes.

It’s a big deal for all investors. Alone it makes up 6% of the S&P 500 by weighting. But much more than that its performance drives sentiment across the tech space, particularly in stocks related to AI.

For Nvidia stock holders, it’s coming at a crucial time after a tricky start to the year. First we had DeepSeek, which touted much cheaper AI models that wouldn’t require the kind of massive investment in data centres powered by Nvidia chips. Then we had export restrictions on chips being sent to China. And of course, the ever-changing outlook for tariffs.

Teh stock has had a turbulent year – hitting a high of $153.13 in January and low of $86.62 during the depths of the April tariff woes. Shares head earnings down about 4% on the year as of Friday, 23 May.

China Outlook Key

Last month Nvidia said in a filing that it would take a $5.5 billion hit in the Q1 due to the ban on sales of its H20 chips in China. CEO Jensen Huang said the ban had cost Nvidia $15bn in lost sales. Investors should watch for any update on this in the earnings release or in the call – at the moment the plan is to alter the H20 chip to comply with export restrictions, with a release expected as soon as July.

As factors to consider include the impact of the Saudi chip deal – can the Middle East make up for China?  And we should look at whether the 90-day tariff pause is just a brief respite before stormier times ahead for the stock.

Revenue Growth Slowdown

Wall Street expects earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.88 on $43.26 billion in revenue. This would represent around 66% revenue growth and 44% earnings growth. By comparison, in Q1 last year it reported revenue growth of 262% and EPS growth of 461%. Margins are going to be closely scrutinised. In February Nvidia said it expects gross profit margins of 70.6% to 71% for Q1 as it deals with the production ramp-up of its new Blackwell chip.

Stock Volatility Expected

According to Bloomberg data, options markets suggest NVDA will rise or fall over 7% after it reports Q1 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. The company’s fourth quarter earnings topped estimates but its outlook for gross margin in Q1 was lower than estimates. The day after the update its shares swung in a range of 11.4%, falling 8.5% after rising as much as 2.8% at one stage.