The Week Ahead: September kicks off with US jobs report to set scene for Fed’s rate decision

Markets head into September after a fresh record high on Wall Street and another strong set of numbers from Nvidia helping to underpin confidence.

Nonfarm payrolls data will be crucial for guiding expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision due in a fortnight, while Eurozone inflation is the main event this side of the Atlantic.

In the UK, Reform UK, which currently leads in the polls, kicks off a keenly-anticipated conference in Birmingham. Before this we hear from several Bank of England rate setters ahead of the next policy meeting.

The Q2 earnings season is nearly over but we will hear from Dow component Salesforce and semiconductor firm Broadcom.

Monday, 1 September

It’s the Labor Day holiday in the US, leaving Wall Street closed, though futures will remain active. Europe therefore will be looking to China’s latest round of manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports for a steer, whilst final PMI readings for Japan, France, Germany and the UK are also due up. The Chinese manufacturing report will be of particular relevance to mining and basic resources stocks in London.

Tuesday, 2 September

Two important pieces of data on the horizon. First is the CPI flash estimate for the Eurozone. This will be important for deliberations at the European Central Bank on when to resume discussions on interest rate cuts. Meeting accounts from July showed policymakers were split on whether inflation was more likely to come in higher or lower than expected. The ECB left rates on hold in July and is expected to do so again in September, before resuming talks on rate cuts later in the autumn. The last reading showed inflation holding steady at 2.0% (2.3% for core) in July. 

The other data point is the US ISM manufacturing PMI, which has been in contraction territory for the last 5 months while prices continued to rise. 

The US House and the Senate are set to return from their August recess.

Earnings: Signet Jewelers (SIG), Zscaler (ZS)

Wednesday, 3 September

Salesforce earnings represent the main event on the corporate calendar. It’s had a tough year, shedding about a quarter of its value. The “AI is eating software” thesis put forth by Melius Reseach continues to weigh on the stock, which has had a number of price target downgrades from analysts in recent days. We also get Figma’s set of quarterly results since its recent IPO.

JOLTS job openings data is the precursor the week’s big event on Friday – the nonfarm payrolls report. Australian GDP figures will be one to watch for AUD crosses. The Fed releases its Beige Book survey of economic conditions, which is compiled by regional Fed banks.

Meanwhile UK investors should watch the latest round of monetary policy hearings as the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, and other members of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee give evidence to MPs. We should also hear from Catherine Mann and ECB president Christine Lagarde.

Potential implications for defence stocks as Poland’s new president, Karol Nawrocki, joins US President Donald Trump at the White House.

Earnings: Salesforce (CRM), Figma (FIG)

Thursday, 4 September

A trio of US data releases will be the main drivers for markets with the ISM services PMI, weekly unemployment claims and the ADP nonfarm payroll report. The 2025 NFL season kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Friday, 5 September

US nonfarm payrolls will be the main market-mover of the week. It’s key to whether the Fed thinks it needs to cut rates in September. Last month’s report was marked by a steep decline in hiring activity and some big downward revisions to the prior two months. But does the Fed need such a strong pace of hiring given the decline in labour supply to ensure it meets its full employment mandate? The unemployment rate, which did tick up to 4.2% last month, will be key. 

Elsewhere, watch for UK retail sales figures – particularly after Deutsche Bank recently downgraded a number of British retail stocks. Reform UK kicks off its annual conference.