BP full-year earnings: what to watch

BP reports Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday (10 Feb) amid calls from investors for incoming CEO Meg O’Neill to set out an updated strategic vision for the company with shares trading at their highest in almost two years.

The company is expected to follow Shell by reporting weaker annual profits after a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude down from around $80 a barrel a year ago to sub-$70 today and close to $60 in January, its lowest in five years. Despite the drop in oil prices BP shares are higher over the last year, largely off the back of a strategy reset under former CEO MurraryAuchinloss and news of activist investor Elliott Management building a sizeable stake in the oil major.

For the full-year 2025 BP is expected to report a roughly 15% decline in underlying profits to $7.5bn, down from $8.9bn a year before with fourth-quarter performancing sagging under weaker oil prices. Brent averaged $63.73 a barrel in Q4 2025 compared to $69.13 in the third quarter 2025. 

The annual results come a year since BP pivoted back to oil and gas after its wayward foray into green energy. In a trading update a month ago BP flagged it would take a $4bn-$5bn hit from writing down the value of its green investments, though it said this would not impact its underlying profits for the year.

BP also flagged weaker Q4 profits in the update, reporting fourth-quarter gas sales will be $100mn-$300mn lower than in the prior quarter, while crude oil sales were $200mn-$400mn lower. Oil and gas production was flat and oil trading “weak”, but refining margins would be $100mn higher than in the previous quarter.

With earnings under pressure investors will be wondering if the company can maintain shareholder distributions amid speculation that its share buybacks could be trimmed.Shell reported a 22% drop in adjusted earnings to $18.5bn for 2025, down from $23.7bn in 2024. Despite this it raised the dividend 4% and announced $3.5bn worth of share buybacks.

BP may not be in such a good position and there is speculation itcould cancel its $750 million quarterly share buyback programme entirely as it faces both pressure to offer investors a new direction and to lower its net debt. Last year it cut quarterly repurchases by 60% from$1.75 billion previously, but there is chatter it could go further tomorrow. A move to cancel buybacks would give incoming CEO O’Neill a clean slate when she takes over in April; a kitchen sink job to get all the bad news for investors out of the way. It would also help it fulfil its commitment to cut net debt from $22 billion to between $14 billion and $18 billion by 2027, which it is aiming to achieve through divestments, including the sale of its majority stake in the Castrol lubricants business.

Another area to watch is BP’s assumptions for commodity prices with oil and gas trading well below the level assumed when the company delivered its strategic reset a year ago.