Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investor Content Strategist
Key points
Several other sectors have since been hit with wealth management, insurance brokers and real estate services coming under fire
What’s happening?
Stocks across a range of sectors including business software, insurance brokers, wealth managers and real estate have been falling like dominoes after the release of a batch of new AI tools that has sent shockwaves through the market.
A week ago, Anthropic launched its new AI model, Claude Opus 4.6, which unlike many similar models is aimed at enterprise users. It comes hot on the heels of the release in January of Cowork, an AI coding platform designed for firms without in-house coding expertise. Cowork plug-ins have been made freely available across a wide range of industries, which may prove disruptive if usage increases significantly. These developments have stoked fear about disruption in enterprise software, worrying investors about the durability of future revenue.
Enterprise software stocks were rocked. The S&P 500 Software & Services Index, which has 140 constituents, plunged. It’s now down about 16% in 2026 but the decline is not evenly spread. Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike Holdings and Datadog were some of the worst-hit stocks in the recent selloff. Losses were also seen across the likes of Salesforce, Adobe, Thomson Reuters, LegalZoom and Intuit among others.
Several UK-listed companies were affected, notably RELX, the information and analytics company that owns the LexisNexis legal portal. Others such as Sage, Experian and LSEG were lower too. It’s worth noting that LSEG, which has pushed its data and analytics business, has been under pressure since Anthropic released its Claude for Financial Services tool last July. Investors, such as the activist Elliott Management, would argue that the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI cannot replicate or replace LSEG’s real-time data. Nevertheless, the last week has underlined that AI disruption risks remain at the front of investors’ minds right now.
As I said a week ago, the plunge across software and data stocks had the feel of a ‘fire sale’ because investors suddenly no longer have any visibility or confidence in their models.
This is all about the growing dispersion in the AI trade. We don’t know who’s going to win or lose, and we don't yet know really how useful some of these tools are, but we reckon a lot of these firms are going to struggle to generate margin as AI will compress and compete away competitive advantage. To make a general point, there are clearly bargains with some of these names as some will be winners, but investors are turning backs because they are saying 'we don't know how to price these stocks’.
Following this we’ve seen other sectors affected as the AI-fear trade broaden to include other types of business. Large insurance brokers slumped this week after the launch of a ChatGPT-based app that will help homeowners select and buy insurance. Willis Towers Watson, Aon and Ryan Speciality were among the companies hit hard by the announcement.
Wealth managers took a nosedive this week after Altruist launched a tool to help financial advisers personalise clients’ investment strategies. The tool, Hazel, promises to do the work “within minutes”. LPL Financial, Charles Schwab, ETrade parent Morgan Stanley, Raymond James were among the stocks affected. UK names were caught too with St James’s Place, Quilter and Aberdeen Group also selling off. In Europe, French asset manager Amundi and Swiss wealth manager Julius Baer fell.
By Wednesday you had the sense markets were on the hunt for the next victim and it came by way of real estate services companies. Big US groups CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle and Cushman & Wakefield all fell 12-13%.These firms have moved into areas such as investment sales and property management and valuation, areas seen potentially vulnerable to AI. It’s worth noting that these were significant moves on no clear catalyst on a relatively calm day for US equity markets.
Below is a snapshot of some of the biggest movers in the sectors we've discussed.
The question now – apart from which sector is next on the hitlist – is whether the selloff in all these stocks is overdone?
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues the market concerns about AI are misplaced. “There’s this notion that the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI,” he said last week. “It is the most illogical thing in the world.” Arm Holdings boss Rene Haas strikes a similar tone, calling the sell-off a “micro-hysteria”.
Certainly, the mechanics of the recent selloff seems to reflect fear and is largely sentiment-based rather than off any fundamentals as companies were sold off indiscriminately on a wide sectoral basis.
In the space of data analytics there are signs that AI is a positive. RELX for instance delivered positive results on Thursday morning and pushed back against the AI-fear narrative. CEO Erik Engstrom said: "The continued evolution of artificial intelligence is enabling us to add more value to our customers, as we embed additional functionality in our products, and to develop and launch products at a faster pace, while continuing to manage cost growth below revenue growth. This evolution has been a key driver of our business for well over a decade, and will remain a key driver of customer value and growth in our business for many years to come."
Enterprises are unlikely to unpick billions and billions of sunk costs in software infrastructure to move across to AI. Large enterprises own vast amounts of their own data that they have accumulated over decades, which is completely integral with existing software and cannot be easily replicated by AI tools. The depth of data and the entrenched role in customer workflows may make many (all?) software service providers more likely to life side-by-side with AI rather than be replaced by it.
Moreover, many would make that point in the advisory space – such as wealth management – that face-to-face, human interaction is becoming more, not less, important. But in a winners-and-losers sense those who integrate and use AI tools the best will thrive, whilst others will be left behind.
Nevertheless, there are clearly genuine concerns about AI disruption in this space that investors should not ignore.
Back in August Melius downgraded Adobe to a sell, citing that "AI is eating software" and that tools from competitors like Figma, Canva, and Runway, along with AI-native tools, are disrupting Adobe’s traditional subscription models. The threat is not from generative AI, but autonomous "agentic" AI that can handle complex workflows, which could decrease the need for software licences.
Whether or not the selloff is overdone in short term, or whether there is lot more damage to be done to a range of sectors from AI disruption, investors are clearly
What can we learn from this?
The recent moves appear sentiment-driven rather than fundamental, but there are clear signs of disruption in enterprise software in particular.
Investors are rotating out of some high-fee, human-capital-intensive business services.
Enterprise software stocks are probably in a winner-and-losers situation – selectivity is becoming more important.
There is likely to be cannibalisation of enterprise software as a service that will hit valuations in the space.
Investors should look to higher quality and AI-resilient software companies.
The question facing investors is which stocks can coexist with AI rather than be replaced outright. It won’t be easy. but it could be worth sifting through some of the wreckage of the last week.
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