Eyes towards the East
Cryptocurrency analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: This week the entire crypto market cap rose by 3%, bringing the market cap to $260 bn. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose by 2.5% and 1.5% respectively.
Chinese stable coin use
Crypto research firm Diar released a report on the most popular stable coin USDT, Tether. The analysis shows that despite what some may believe, on-chain transactions flowing to and from Chinese exchanges dwarf volumes at other trading venues. Chinese exchanges are accounting for nearly 60% of the on-chain volume for USDT while Bitfinex and Binance account for a combined 31% of USDT on-chain volume. Additionally, the data, selected by Bitwise to argue that the Bitcoin market is more regulated and smaller than reported, is mirrored by the Tether volumes on Chinese exchanges. All this means that Chinese exchanges still play an essential role in global pricing. The actual legit trading volume is higher than reported in the Bitwise report.
Hong Kong’s crypto industry at risk
The new extradition law could put cryptocurrency traders and firms at risk in Hong Kong should it pass. Hong Kong is looking to adopt a new extradition treaty that would strengthen the judicial reach of Beijing in the autonomous territory. This political uncertainty in the region could help support BTC prices as entities look to store or transfer value outside of Hong Kong. Additionally, the continued weakening of the CNY against the dollar could help support prices for BTC, given what we know about Tether’s volume on Chinese exchanges.
Sino-Russian crypto relations
Recently, an economic forum in Russia suggested opening a special financial center on the Bolshoy Ussriysky Island, which is split between both Russia and China. The center would serve as a hub for cryptocurrency trading and other foreign exchange markets. There has not been an official Chinese response to the proposal, but this would help strengthen the economic relationship of the countries in the region and open more economic channels outside of the USD dominated avenues.
Cboe futures set to expire for the last time
Next week will mark the end of an era that started back in December 2017 when both CME and Cboe launched Bitcoin futures products. The last Bitcoin futures will expire on June 19th on the Cboe exchange. Meanwhile, the CME group is experiencing record-setting volume for its futures product, so much so that it is one of the products with the highest turnover for the firm. It is clear that CME is the winner with volumes multiple times greater than its rival Cboe.
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)