Head of Commodity Strategy
Selected highlights:
CBOT Soybeans are currently stuck in a tightening range between two trendlines with resistance at $8.50/bu and support at $8.20/bu. In the week to September 4, leveraged funds held a net-short of 63,000 lots which is well below the three-year of a net-long of 45,000 lots. With most of the price-negative news priced in and with US-China trade war showing signs of de-escalating the upside could potentially begin to attract some attention.
CBOT corn has been rangebound since June between $3.4/bu and $3.75/bu. Leveraged funds holds a net-short of 57,000, which is in line with the three-year average.
CBOT Wheat is also caught in a tightening range determined by two trendlines. Support at $4.94/bu which is also the August low while resistance is found at $5.25/bu. The troubled season outside the US helped drive a big jump in the leverage fund long during the past few months. This is currently creating some headwinds while sellers will be looking to trigger long-liquidation on a break below support.
Leveraged funds held an elevated long of 43,000 lots in the week to September 4, close to a six-year high and well above the three-year average of a 70,000-lot net-short.
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
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