Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Copper cancelled uptrend now testing key support at 394
Gold broken key support at 1,825. 1,768 next?
Silver testing key support at 20.55
Gold/Silver cross continuing uptrend forming rising channel pattern
Copper abruptly reversed its uptrend it has resumed last week dropping to test key support at around 394. A break below 394 is likely to fuel another sell-off down to the 200 daily Moving Average and the support at around 370.
RSI staying above 40 threshold thus still showing positive sentiment. However, if Copper breaks below 394 RSI is likely to break below 40 i.e., into negative sentiment.
To reverse this likely bearish scenario at close above 423.70 is needed.
Gold XAUUSD has broken below support at 1,825 and seems destined to extend the short-term down trend to test the 1,768 support just below the 200 daily Moving Average.
However, Gold dip down to test the 0.618 retracement at around 1,748.
RSI is below 40 threshold i.e, negative sentiment and no divergence indicating lower Gold prices are likely. To reverse the short-term down trend a move back above 1,870 is needed.
Silver XAGUSD extended its downtrend after breaking below minor support at 21.24 to test strong key support at around 20.55.
RSI is negative and indicating lower Silver levels could be seen. However, 20.55 seems likel a strong support and a bounce from here should be expected, but for Silver to reverse down trend it needs to close above 22.00
Silver XAGUSD extended its downtrend after breaking below minor support at 21.24 to test strong key support at around 20.55.
RSI is negative and indicating lower Silver levels could be seen. However, 20.55 seems likel a strong support and a bounce from here should be expected, but for Silver to reverse down trend it needs to close above 22.00
Gold/Silver cross XAUXAG moving higher after testing lower rising trendline in what appears to be a rising channel. Closing in on 0.618 retracement at 88.10 and strong resistance at around 69.90.
A break below 83.55 is likely to reverse the uptrend.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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