Technical Update - Dutch gas on fire when US gas, Oil and Gasoline receding

Technical Update - Dutch gas on fire when US gas, Oil and Gasoline receding

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Dutch Gas turning bullish testing key resistance. Henry Hub hit by strong sell off. Oil losing upside momentum testing rising trend lines. Car drivers seem to get some relief. Carbon Emission showing upside potential


Brent oil was rejected at $125.28 twice closing yesterday below short-term lower trend line in the rising channel. RSI divergence strongly indicates a test of support at 114.84 and a drop to test the lower rising trend line (black line) is likely. 55 and 100 SMA’s will offer support . 

If Brent can close above $125.28 March peak is achievable.

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil rejected just above $123 twice only to be send back below the short-term rising trend line and closed below support at 116.38. A bearish move to test the lower trend line is not unlikely. Support around 108-105.
To resume uptrend a close above 123.82 is needed.

Source: Saxo Group

Gasoline got rejected twice around $432.60. Unfolding a short double to it closed below rising trend line. Since mid-May RSI has been showing divergence which is a sign of weakening of the uptrend.
With the close below rising trend line yesterday Gasoline could fall back to around 350 possibly 325, 0.618 and 0.764 retracement levels respectively. Some support at 365

Source: Saxo Group

Dutch Gas broke above falling trend line Tuesday pausing at resistance at €98With the massive move Wednesday Dutch gas is at the time of writing trading above key resistance at around 127.50. A daily close above will most likely push Dutch Gas higher. 146.67 would be minimum level to reach but 166-178 is not unlikely. RSI is back in bullish territory.

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas Has taken out key support at 8.11 selling off to close at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level. RSI closed above 40 threshold but a new sell off will most likely pushing it below i.e. in to bearish sentiment. Henry Hub is not unlikely to test key support at around 4.65

Source: Saxo Group

Carbon Emission has broken bullish out of Triangle like pattern. A daily close above 88.65 will confirm new uptrend.  With first resistance at 92.75. However, February peak around 98.50 is not unlikely. To demolish the likely bullish scenario a close below 79.10 is needed.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992