Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Investor Content Strategist
Key points Some European equity funds are topping our charts UK small cap fund has had a good run Emerging markets in focus
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Returns from the US have been superior for many years, leading to many portfolios becoming heavily overweight US equities. But reliance on the US is no longer a guarantee of success. Almost a month on from the post-Liberation Day lows in early April, we’re checking in on some interesting fund moves. Passive investors can end up with a heavy US bias without even knowing it. MSCI World tracker funds have around 70 per cent invested in US stocks, with a chunky weighting towards the Magnificent Seven. So, switching say from a US-focused fund to one with a Global label might not be as big a change as you think it is. Underlining the shift away from the US among some investors, we’ve screed for the top performing equity Funds over the last month (prices correct up to Friday, 9 May, 2025) that are ISA-eligible and have at least a three-star Morningstar rating. The top performers highlight some interesting shifts - albeit the moves on Monday in the wake of the US-China tariff pause has altered the picture somewhat. Coming into 9 May, Gold Funds took the top 2 spots as investors have shifted into the safety of the metal and prices for spot gold hit record highs. But three funds each with monthly gains of 18-20% point to some interesting shifts. First up is Germany. The DAX hit a record high last week despite the ongoing uncertainty over trade and we can attribute this to the rearmament and reindustrialisation narratives that have underpinned investor flows to the country lately, particularly after the government loosened key debt rules and pledged to borrow hundreds of billions of euro to spend on the military and infrastructure. The Barings German Growth Fund has gained around 20% in the last month. It invests in Germany – major holdings include SAP, Siemens, Alllianz, Airbus and Deutsche Telekom. It also has sizeable holdings of Commerzbank and Infineon. Also doing well over the last month and sticking to the European theme, with a gain of over 19% is the Ninety One GSF European Equity Fund. Top holdings include SAP, Siemens and Deutsche Telekom (again), as well as AstraZeneca, Rolls-Royce, Novo Nordisk and LVMH. Next, Emerging Markets. These have been popular among investors seeking to play on a weaker dollar story as well as reshoring from China into nearby countries that could be less exposed to tariffs. From the same provider, the Barings Asean Frontiers Fund has also notched a gain of around 20% in the last month. Its focus is on Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia. Finally, we’ve highlighted the UK small caps with the JPM UK Smaller Companies Fund, which has risen about 19% in the last month. Its aim is to provide capital growth over the long-term (5-10 years) by investing at least 80% of the Fund’s assets in small cap UK companies listed on the FTSE 250 or AIM. The Fund’s holdings are diversified with no company accounting for more than 5% of the value of the fund, with Lion Finance Group, Ashtead Technology Holdings, Premier Foods, XPS Pensions Group and Morgan Sindall Group among the largest holdings. Source: (data accurate up Friday 9 May, 2025) Saxo Investor stock screener - equity funds, 1mo %, 3-star min, ISA-eligible* * Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change.
As of Monday, 12 May, the top funds on the screener are the Polar Capital Technology Fund and Fidelity Latin America Fund.