Summary: Will 2024 be the year of the metals? Gold has just reached a fresh record high driven by strong retail demand and record central bank buying. With the prospect for rate cuts in the US later this year, further strength could lie ahead.
Physical gold: Purchasing physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, or bars provides direct exposure to the metal but involves considerations such as secure storage, insurance, and higher trading costs.
Gold ETFs/ETCs: Exchange-traded funds or commodities offer a convenient way to invest in gold without holding physical metal. These products track gold prices closely and can be traded easily on exchanges.
Gold mining stocks/ETFs: Investing in gold mining companies or ETFs that hold a basket of mining stocks provides exposure to gold prices. However, these investments carry operational risks and may exhibit higher volatility compared to gold itself. Since 2022, when the US Federal Reserve began hiking rates to curb soaring inflation, gold miners have struggled relative to the price of gold amid rising costs towards financing, labour, and materials. The weakness seen during the past few months has left the sector increasingly undervalued relative to the gold prices hitting fresh record closing highs.
Monetary policy: The policies of the US Federal Reserve, including interest rates and inflation targets, significantly influence gold prices. As gold does not yield interest, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading asset managers to reduce their exposure to real assets.
Currency fluctuations: Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with the value of the US dollar. A weaker dollar tends to drive gold prices higher, and conversely, a stronger dollar can suppress gold prices.
Real bond yields: Gold prices often move inversely to interest rates, as rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Long-term investors monitor developments in US real yields, which represent the yield on a bond investment adjusted for expected inflation.
Central bank demand: Several central banks have been acquiring gold in recent years to diversify their reserves away from heavy reliance on the dollar. Additionally, gold's lack of credit or counterpart risk makes it a trusted reserve asset globally.
Geopolitical tensions: Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, sought by investors during times of geopolitical uncertainty or crisis due to its intrinsic value and perceived stability.
Speculative activity: Hedge funds and speculators often anticipate and amplify price movements in gold markets based on fundamental and momentum-driven factors.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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