Crude oil update before stock report and FOMC
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Crude oil remains range-bound ahead of the Weekly Petroleum Status report at 14:30 GMT and the FOMC rate decision at 18:00 GMT. This time around, the latter event should prove more critical.
However with the Federal Open Market Committee decision potentially being more important the market reaction to the report may end up being fairly muted. The FOMC decision is of a much bigger importance given its impact on the general level of risk appetite. The recent improvement in global risk sentiment will need a dovish FOMC to be sustained.
The market has during the past month gone from expecting 50 bps cut to 100 bps cut over the next 12 months as US economic data continues to weaken. The result, should the FOMC fail to support this view, could be some painful adjustments across markets with dollar and short-term bond yields rising while stocks could suffer. All of these would be non-supportive for oil.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)