Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Crude oil bulls seeing few clouds on the horizon
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Brent crude oil trades back above $70/barrel for the first time in five months while WTI is attempting to re-enter the $65 to $75 range where it spend six months last year before the November to December collapse.
Supporting the latest move higher has been renewed concerns about supplies from Libya at a time where voluntary and involuntary production cuts from Opec and friends already have a firm grip on the market.
WTI crude oil is attempting a return to its 2018 upper range:
WTI crude oil is attempting a return to its 2018 upper range:
This update from Reuters shed some light on what is currently going on in Libya, a country which has seen dramatic ebbs and flows of its oil output since the fall of Gadaffi in 2011. A period of relative calm has seen Libya’s production move back above one million barrels/day. The major production sites are located far from Tripoli, the capital, where fighting is currently taking place. However, the confrontation between the UN-recognised government and Commander Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) has raised the stakes and led to renewed concerns in the oil market.
The International Monetary Fund yesterday downgraded its global growth forecast to the lowest in ten years while Vladimir Putin raised doubts about Russia’s willingness to support a prolonged period of production cuts. But these developments are unlikely to hold any sway over the market as long Saudi Arabia continues to back the production cut deal as aggressively as it has done so far. With a very successful Aramco bond auction in the bag they will undoubtedly feel less inclined to act on renewed political pressure from the US.
Following the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi last year, the Saudis, in need of political friends abroad ,jumped when the US asked them to increase production ahead of the introduction of sanctions against Iran. What followed was the biggest slump in oil prices in years after the US surprisingly granted waivers to eight buyers of Iranian crude. As a result of being blindsided by the US and because of their need to support the price of crude oil, Saudi Arabia made a 180 degree turn: During a four-month period from December to March the kingdom’s production slumped from a record to a four-year low, well below the level they had agreed as part of the Opec+ deal to cut production.
Following the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi last year, the Saudis, in need of political friends abroad ,jumped when the US asked them to increase production ahead of the introduction of sanctions against Iran. What followed was the biggest slump in oil prices in years after the US surprisingly granted waivers to eight buyers of Iranian crude. As a result of being blindsided by the US and because of their need to support the price of crude oil, Saudi Arabia made a 180 degree turn: During a four-month period from December to March the kingdom’s production slumped from a record to a four-year low, well below the level they had agreed as part of the Opec+ deal to cut production.
With geopolitical risks continuing to impact production from Venezuela and Iran and now also potentially Libya and even Algeria, the crude oil market is likely to remain supported until the price reachs a level that is satisfactory for Opec and Russia. President Trump put through a call to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yesterday to discuss Saudi Arabia’s critical role in ensuring Middle East stability while maintaining maximum pressure against Iran. With the Iran waivers due to expire on May 4 the oil market will be looking towards the US and the price of oil to gauge how aggressive Trump can afford to be at this stage.
With Trump being very focused on (high) stock market prices and (low) gasoline prices the fact that US consumers are now paying the highest seasonal price for gasoline since 2014 could potentially limit his ability to tighten the screws on Iran.
Later today at 14:30 GMT (CET+2 and ET-4) the EIA will publish its Weekly Petroleum Status report with the API and surveys both pointing to an increase in crude oil stocks and a continued drop in products.
With Trump being very focused on (high) stock market prices and (low) gasoline prices the fact that US consumers are now paying the highest seasonal price for gasoline since 2014 could potentially limit his ability to tighten the screws on Iran.
Later today at 14:30 GMT (CET+2 and ET-4) the EIA will publish its Weekly Petroleum Status report with the API and surveys both pointing to an increase in crude oil stocks and a continued drop in products.
Monthly oil market reports from Opec today (just published today) and the IEA tomorrow will further cast some light on these two major forecasters' views on production and demand going forward.
According to a Bloomberg news story today, the Opec update confirms market expectations of a plunge in last month's crude output, with the impact of planned cutbacks exacerbated by the political crisis in Venezuela. Opec oil output, it said, tumbled by 534,000 barrels a day to just above 30 million a day in March. It added that "If output remains at current levels, global oil inventories will decline sharply this quarter and next."
Opec report
IEA report
According to a Bloomberg news story today, the Opec update confirms market expectations of a plunge in last month's crude output, with the impact of planned cutbacks exacerbated by the political crisis in Venezuela. Opec oil output, it said, tumbled by 534,000 barrels a day to just above 30 million a day in March. It added that "If output remains at current levels, global oil inventories will decline sharply this quarter and next."
Opec report
IEA report
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...