Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 11, click here.
Leveraged funds continued to reduce bullish bets across 25 major commodity futures in the week to September 11. Overall a net-short is currently seen in both metals and agriculture with trade war and EM concerns, together with the stronger dollar, all weighing on sentiment. Crude oil, meanwhile, is being supported by the risk of lower supply from Iran and Venezuela.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 11, click here.
Leveraged funds continued to reduce bullish bets across 25 major commodity futures in the week to September 11. Overall a net-short is currently seen in both metals and agriculture with trade war and EM concerns, together with the stronger dollar, all weighing on sentiment. Crude oil, meanwhile, is being supported by the risk of lower supply from Iran and Venezuela.
The combined net-long across the 25 commodities tracked in this report was reduced by 8% to 808,000 lots, a 2½-year low, with selling of energy and grains being the main driver last week.
Changes in the crude oil positions highlighted the recent shift towards Brent crude (+23,000 lots) as its premium to WTI (-19,000 lots) rose and its backwardation jumped. This in response to supply worries from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya being a bigger short-term concern than emerging signs of EM growth and demand slowdown.
All five metals were bought as the dollar struggled to extend its recent run of gains and as the market speculated about a possible easing of trade war tensions. These improved conditions, however, only lasted until last Friday when news broke that President Trump had been telling aides to proceed with additional tariffs. Those tariffs could be announced as early as today with speculation homing in on a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
The gold and silver net-shorts remain close to record levels with the short-covering seen last week not being enough to push the prices above levels where bearish traders would start to worry.
The gold and silver net-shorts remain close to record levels with the short-covering seen last week not being enough to push the prices above levels where bearish traders would start to worry.
Grain traders were net-sellers ahead of last Wednesday’s WASDE report which helped send all three crops sharply lower. The combined net-short in soybeans, wheat, and corn remains close to its five-year average for this time of year.
The biggest change was seen in Chicago wheat where the net-long was reduced by 57%.
The biggest change was seen in Chicago wheat where the net-long was reduced by 57%.
In soft commodities the biggest change was the 19% reduction of the sugar net-short. This as the rally from a 10-year low at 10 cents/lb gained some additional momentum from improved fundamentals.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy