COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar

COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 11, click here

Leveraged funds continued to reduce bullish bets across 25 major commodity futures in the week to September 11. Overall a net-short is currently seen in both metals and agriculture with trade war and EM concerns, together with the stronger dollar, all weighing on sentiment. Crude oil, meanwhile, is being supported by the risk of lower supply from Iran and Venezuela. 
Managed money position

The combined net-long across the 25 commodities tracked in this report was reduced by 8% to 808,000 lots, a 2½-year low, with selling of energy and grains being the main driver last week.
Funds positioning

Changes in the crude oil positions highlighted the recent shift towards Brent crude (+23,000 lots) as its premium to WTI (-19,000 lots) rose and its backwardation jumped. This in response to supply worries from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya being a bigger short-term concern than emerging signs of EM growth and demand slowdown. 
Brent and WTI: Managed money

All five metals were bought as the dollar struggled to extend its recent run of gains and as the market speculated about a possible easing of trade war tensions. These improved conditions, however, only lasted until last Friday when news broke that President Trump had been telling aides to proceed with additional tariffs. Those tariffs could be announced as early as today with speculation homing in on a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.  

The gold and silver net-shorts remain close to record levels with the short-covering seen last week not being enough to push the prices above levels where bearish traders would start to worry. 
COMEX Metals

Grain traders were net-sellers ahead of last Wednesday’s WASDE report which helped send all three crops sharply lower. The combined net-short in soybeans, wheat, and corn remains close to its five-year average for this time of year.

The biggest change was seen in Chicago wheat where the net-long was reduced by 57%.
Agricultural commodities

In soft commodities the biggest change was the 19% reduction of the sugar net-short. This as the rally from a 10-year low at 10 cents/lb gained some additional momentum from improved fundamentals.
Soft commodities


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992