COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar

COT: Bullish commodity bets slump to 2½-year low on trade war, dollar

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 11, click here

Leveraged funds continued to reduce bullish bets across 25 major commodity futures in the week to September 11. Overall a net-short is currently seen in both metals and agriculture with trade war and EM concerns, together with the stronger dollar, all weighing on sentiment. Crude oil, meanwhile, is being supported by the risk of lower supply from Iran and Venezuela. 
Managed money position

The combined net-long across the 25 commodities tracked in this report was reduced by 8% to 808,000 lots, a 2½-year low, with selling of energy and grains being the main driver last week.
Funds positioning

Changes in the crude oil positions highlighted the recent shift towards Brent crude (+23,000 lots) as its premium to WTI (-19,000 lots) rose and its backwardation jumped. This in response to supply worries from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya being a bigger short-term concern than emerging signs of EM growth and demand slowdown. 
Brent and WTI: Managed money

All five metals were bought as the dollar struggled to extend its recent run of gains and as the market speculated about a possible easing of trade war tensions. These improved conditions, however, only lasted until last Friday when news broke that President Trump had been telling aides to proceed with additional tariffs. Those tariffs could be announced as early as today with speculation homing in on a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.  

The gold and silver net-shorts remain close to record levels with the short-covering seen last week not being enough to push the prices above levels where bearish traders would start to worry. 
COMEX Metals

Grain traders were net-sellers ahead of last Wednesday’s WASDE report which helped send all three crops sharply lower. The combined net-short in soybeans, wheat, and corn remains close to its five-year average for this time of year.

The biggest change was seen in Chicago wheat where the net-long was reduced by 57%.
Agricultural commodities

In soft commodities the biggest change was the 19% reduction of the sugar net-short. This as the rally from a 10-year low at 10 cents/lb gained some additional momentum from improved fundamentals.
Soft commodities

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.