Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - US 10-year Yields eyeing 5%. T-Note Future resuming downtrend. Euro Bund sliding
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
US 10-year Treasury Yields set for 4.50%, but eyeing 5%
Treasury Note resumes down trend
Euro Bund future sliding lower, could drop below 130
US 10-year Treasury Yields has been hovering around its short-term rising trendline the past week following a minor correction down to 3.90%.
Now uptrend seems to resume and will be confirmed if yields close above resistance at 4.25%, and if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
If that scenario plays out yields could extend its uptrend to the 1.382 projection of the October correction at around 4.50%.
However, yields could move higher going in to end year and 2023.
There is no strong resistance until around 5% which is the 1.618 projection of the 2018-2019 collapse is around 5.08% and levels not seen since prior to the Subprime crisis.
A spike up to 5.3% is not unlikely.
For yields to demolish the short-term uptrend a close below 3.89 is needed.
The US 10-year Treasury Note is testing its falling trendline after being rejected at the 0.618 retracement at 112. A close below October low at 108 26/32 will extend the medium-term and longer-term down trend. Likely down to the 0.786 Extension at 105 12/32 but could collapse to strong support around 104
The Euro Bund future seems to be trading in a slightly falling channel failing to test key resistance at 142.62. If Euro Bund keeps sliding lower and RSI closes below its rising trend line selling pressure is likely to accelerate and Euro Bund to test October low at 134.02 but is likely to trade lower.
If Euro Bund takes out 134 it is likely to extend the down trend the Fibonacci extension level at 130.66 possibly dropping to the 1.618 projection of the June to August correction at 128.91.
However, there is no strong support until around 119.86-121.06. See monthly chart
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)