Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - US 10-year Yields eyeing 5%. T-Note Future resuming downtrend. Euro Bund sliding
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 10-year Treasury Yields set for 4.50%, but eyeing 5%
Treasury Note resumes down trend
Euro Bund future sliding lower, could drop below 130
US 10-year Treasury Yields has been hovering around its short-term rising trendline the past week following a minor correction down to 3.90%.
Now uptrend seems to resume and will be confirmed if yields close above resistance at 4.25%, and if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
If that scenario plays out yields could extend its uptrend to the 1.382 projection of the October correction at around 4.50%.
However, yields could move higher going in to end year and 2023.
There is no strong resistance until around 5% which is the 1.618 projection of the 2018-2019 collapse is around 5.08% and levels not seen since prior to the Subprime crisis.
A spike up to 5.3% is not unlikely.
For yields to demolish the short-term uptrend a close below 3.89 is needed.
The US 10-year Treasury Note is testing its falling trendline after being rejected at the 0.618 retracement at 112. A close below October low at 108 26/32 will extend the medium-term and longer-term down trend. Likely down to the 0.786 Extension at 105 12/32 but could collapse to strong support around 104
The Euro Bund future seems to be trading in a slightly falling channel failing to test key resistance at 142.62. If Euro Bund keeps sliding lower and RSI closes below its rising trend line selling pressure is likely to accelerate and Euro Bund to test October low at 134.02 but is likely to trade lower.
If Euro Bund takes out 134 it is likely to extend the down trend the Fibonacci extension level at 130.66 possibly dropping to the 1.618 projection of the June to August correction at 128.91.
However, there is no strong support until around 119.86-121.06. See monthly chart
Latest Market Insights
Equities
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...