Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Longer term view
In March this year the US 10-year yields broke above the 200 Monthly SMA for the first time since the 1980’s. It is a major change of longer-term sentiment. Combined with a likely September month close above resistance at 3.26% the multi decade longer falling trend has reversed.
4% is now the key resistance. 4% is not only a psychological level but a resistance level back in 2008 during the Sub-prime crisis.
There is currently no divergence on RSI indicating yields are likely to penetrate the 4% resistance. If that scenario plays out there is no strong resistance before 5.00-5.32%.
To reverse the bullish picture yields need to drop back below 2.50%.
Two monthly charts. Longer term picture back 50 years and zoomed in on the past 15 years
The US Treasury future seems to have found support at $111 in what looks like the fifth wave lower.
If this is the fifth vawe lower, it should as a minimum be as long as the first vawe which has been reached.
However, (and now it gets a bit nerdy, sorry) fifth vawe will often be longer than vawe one. It usually moves to the 1.618 projection of the fourth vawe (red set of Fibonacci levels), close to the 0.618 Extension level based on the third vawe (blue sets of Fibonacci levels) AND close to the 1.382 projection of the 201-2020 bull market (green sets of Fibonacci levels). In other words, a cluster of Fibonacci levels around 109-108½.
However, if the future closes below support at 111 it could extend the down trend to the 0.786 Fibo Extension level at 105 12and even dip down to the 1.618 projection at 103, close to the 2006-2007 lows at around 104
To reverse this bearish picture the future needs to close above peak of vawe four i.e., above 122.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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