Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Short update: the bond market is a dangerous place
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: US corporate bond primary market stops, Zambia defaults on its Eurobond debt, and Argentina's recently restructured dollar bonds fall in the distressed territory. How more bad news does the bond market need to receive to understand the music is stopping?
US corporate bond primary market stops, Zambia defaults on its Eurobond debt, and Argentina's recently restructured dollar bonds fall in the distressed territory. How many bad news does the bond market need to receive to understand the music is stopping?
US corporate bonds had a very tough day yesterday amid the selloff in the equity market. For the first time since March, the US primary market didn't issue any investment-grade nor high-yield corporate bonds. High yield corporates are the ones to have accounted for most of the losses with the CDX North America High yield Spreads wider by 30bps.
We have seen the US Yield curve flattening slightly, however as we have explained in yesterday's article, we don't believe that the yield curve is a reliable indicator of distress at the moment as the Fed heavily controls it in an effort to kill market uncertainty.
We believe that volatility in the corporate space will continue to be high, and we might see more disruption in the primary bond market. Within this context, investors need to pay attention to fallen-angels risk in their portfolio. We believe that interest coverage deterioration and reduced financial flexibility will soon translate into numerous downgrades.
The worst news comes from emerging markets. Argentina's new dollar bond fell yesterday to a level of 39 cents on the dollar as the government tightens currency controls to protect waning international reserves. This morning we have seen the Philippines rejecting all bids for its 10-year treasury bonds as investors were demanding more yield than previous auctions. The Philippines, just a few days ago, have also rejected all bids on new bills. Finally this afternoon we received news that Zambia is going to default on its Eurobonds.
We don't believe these events are idiosyncratic; it is evident that the market is becoming more nervous about risk. This is why we think this is a perfect time to take profit and reassess risk as the storm is coming.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy