Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, US-CH CPIs & CH PPI
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 37…
- To our US & CA brethren, happy labor day wkd & see you all back on Tues.
- KVP back in from the studycation & social fasting break. Its been super intense, with plenty of challenges & mini-victories, yet net-net, cannot recommend it enough. We tend to not carve enough time for things that we could be interested in pursuing, be it for self-capex/development reasons, hobbies/interests |& just pure fun & growth (a joke in there for the python pandas folks).
- Markets: No doubt have a lot of catching up to do, yet at the same time probably not (i.e. noise > signal), either way please be patient folks.
- We made ATNH on US equities over the last 2 wks (no surprise there) & we have had a sharp pullback going into the end of last wk, with Thu seeing a drawdown of over 5% on the Nasdaq-100 & over 3% on the S&P 500. This was the biggest one session pullback since Jun 11, when the S&P closed down close to 6% & the Nasdaq-100 was down 5%.
- Again no surprise here, tactical bearish counter trends, are the norm, not the exception in a structural bullish market. Do not forget the big picture of economic liquidity being the undisputed goliath in the room.
- Will dig a little deeper into respective cross-assets later this wk.
- Ok let’s get after it
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Economics: Generally a light one, a touch of an inflation theme with figs due out of CH, GER & US. US will also see JOLTS job openings. Whilst CH will also see PPI, money supply & new loans coming through.
- Central Banks: Key rate decisions across global macro this wk will come out of Canada 0.25%, Malaysia 1.75% & the Euro-Zone -0.50%.
- From an economists consensus basis, no rate changes are expected.
- Fed Speak: None on the calendar, so far at least…
- Holidays: US & CA out today on labor day holiday.
- Focus: Immediate market focus is likely going to be on equity price action once the US gets back in on Tues.
- From a calendar perspective we are getting towards the end of 3Q & firmly getting out of the Northern Hemisphere Summer. Obviously same theme of US election countdown will gain greater coverage (& hence noise) as we approach the Nov 3 date, as will potential turbulence in US/CH relations.
- Have a brilliant wk everyone, its GOOD to be back.
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the wayKVP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.