Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro 2 minutes to read

Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, US-CH CPIs & CH PPI

Top of Mind…

Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 37…
To our US & CA brethren, happy labor day wkd & see you all back on Tues.
KVP back in from the studycation & social fasting break. Its been super intense, with plenty of challenges & mini-victories, yet net-net, cannot recommend it enough. We tend to not carve enough time for things that we could be interested in pursuing, be it for self-capex/development reasons, hobbies/interests |& just pure fun & growth (a joke in there for the python pandas folks).
Markets: No doubt have a lot of catching up to do, yet at the same time probably not (i.e. noise > signal), either way please be patient folks.
We made ATNH on US equities over the last 2 wks (no surprise there) & we have had a sharp pullback going into the end of last wk, with Thu seeing a drawdown of over 5% on the Nasdaq-100 & over 3% on the S&P 500. This was the biggest one session pullback since Jun 11, when the S&P closed down close to 6% & the Nasdaq-100 was down 5%.
Again no surprise here, tactical bearish counter trends, are the norm, not the exception in a structural bullish market. Do not forget the big picture of economic liquidity being the undisputed goliath in the room.
Will dig a little deeper into respective cross-assets later this wk.
Ok let’s get after it
What kind of week are you trying to have?
Economics: Generally a light one, a touch of an inflation theme with figs due out of CH, GER & US. US will also see JOLTS job openings. Whilst CH will also see PPI, money supply & new loans coming through.
Central Banks: Key rate decisions across global macro this wk will come out of Canada 0.25%, Malaysia 1.75% & the Euro-Zone -0.50%.
From an economists consensus basis, no rate changes are expected.
Fed Speak: None on the calendar, so far at least…
Holidays: US & CA out today on labor day holiday.
Focus: Immediate market focus is likely going to be on equity price action once the US gets back in on Tues.
From a calendar perspective we are getting towards the end of 3Q & firmly getting out of the Northern Hemisphere Summer. Obviously same theme of US election countdown will gain greater coverage (& hence noise) as we approach the Nov 3 date, as will potential turbulence in US/CH relations.
Have a brilliant wk everyone, its GOOD to be back.

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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

KVP

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

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French President Macron resigns
The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate
As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
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EU Army forces EU down path to full union
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A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030
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UK holds UnBrexit referendum
Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
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Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation
History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
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OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset
Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
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USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system
Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
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Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, US-CH CPIs & CH PPI

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Latest Market Insights

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

French President Macron resigns

Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

EU Army forces EU down path to full union

A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

UK holds UnBrexit referendum

Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

Tax haven ban kills private equity

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