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Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, US-CH CPIs & CH PPI 

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 37…

  • To our US & CA brethren, happy labor day wkd & see you all back on Tues.

  • KVP back in from the studycation & social fasting break. Its been super intense, with plenty of challenges & mini-victories, yet net-net, cannot recommend it enough. We tend to not carve enough time for things that we could be interested in pursuing, be it for self-capex/development reasons, hobbies/interests |& just pure fun & growth (a joke in there for the python pandas folks).

  • Markets: No doubt have a lot of catching up to do, yet at the same time probably not (i.e. noise > signal), either way please be patient folks.

  • We made ATNH on US equities over the last 2 wks (no surprise there) & we have had a sharp pullback going into the end of last wk, with Thu seeing a drawdown of over 5% on the Nasdaq-100 & over 3% on the S&P 500. This was the biggest one session pullback since Jun 11, when the S&P closed down close to 6% & the Nasdaq-100 was down 5%.

  • Again no surprise here, tactical bearish counter trends, are the norm, not the exception in a structural bullish market. Do not forget the big picture of economic liquidity being the undisputed goliath in the room.

  • Will dig a little deeper into respective cross-assets later this wk.

  • Ok let’s get after it

  • What kind of week are you trying to have?

  • Economics: Generally a light one, a touch of an inflation theme with figs due out of CH, GER & US. US will also see JOLTS job openings. Whilst CH will also see PPI, money supply & new loans coming through.

  • Central Banks: Key rate decisions across global macro this wk will come out of Canada 0.25%, Malaysia 1.75% & the Euro-Zone -0.50%.

  • From an economists consensus basis, no rate changes are expected.

  • Fed Speak: None on the calendar, so far at least…

  • Holidays: US & CA out today on labor day holiday.

  • Focus: Immediate market focus is likely going to be on equity price action once the US gets back in on Tues.

  • From a calendar perspective we are getting towards the end of 3Q & firmly getting out of the Northern Hemisphere Summer. Obviously same theme of US election countdown will gain greater coverage (& hence noise) as we approach the Nov 3 date, as will potential turbulence in US/CH relations.

  • Have a brilliant wk everyone, its GOOD to be back.

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

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    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article

  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article

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    Read article

  • Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

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    Read article

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    Read article
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