Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, CPIs

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 37 - US Labor WKD, ECB, BoC, US-CH CPIs & CH PPI 

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 37

  • To our US & CA brethren, happy labor day wkd & see you all back on Tues.

  • KVP back in from the studycation & social fasting break. Its been super intense, with plenty of challenges & mini-victories, yet net-net, cannot recommend it enough. We tend to not carve enough time for things that we could be interested in pursuing, be it for self-capex/development reasons, hobbies/interests |& just pure fun & growth (a joke in there for the python pandas folks).

  • Markets: No doubt have a lot of catching up to do, yet at the same time probably not (i.e. noise > signal), either way please be patient folks.

  • We made ATNH on US equities over the last 2 wks (no surprise there) & we have had a sharp pullback going into the end of last wk, with Thu seeing a drawdown of over 5% on the Nasdaq-100 & over 3% on the S&P 500. This was the biggest one session pullback since Jun 11, when the S&P closed down close to 6% & the Nasdaq-100 was down 5%.

  • Again no surprise here, tactical bearish counter trends, are the norm, not the exception in a structural bullish market. Do not forget the big picture of economic liquidity being the undisputed goliath in the room.

  • Will dig a little deeper into respective cross-assets later this wk.

  • Ok let’s get after it

  • What kind of week are you trying to have?

  • Economics: Generally a light one, a touch of an inflation theme with figs due out of CH, GER & US. US will also see JOLTS job openings. Whilst CH will also see PPI, money supply & new loans coming through.

  • Central Banks: Key rate decisions across global macro this wk will come out of Canada 0.25%, Malaysia 1.75% & the Euro-Zone -0.50%.

  • From an economists consensus basis, no rate changes are expected.

  • Fed Speak: None on the calendar, so far at least…

  • Holidays: US & CA out today on labor day holiday.

  • Focus: Immediate market focus is likely going to be on equity price action once the US gets back in on Tues.

  • From a calendar perspective we are getting towards the end of 3Q & firmly getting out of the Northern Hemisphere Summer. Obviously same theme of US election countdown will gain greater coverage (& hence noise) as we approach the Nov 3 date, as will potential turbulence in US/CH relations.

  • Have a brilliant wk everyone, its GOOD to be back.

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.