Market Quick Take - Trump calls off Iran strike as Apple posts a record slide - 3 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Markets in brighter mood Monday as crude oil prices drop after US president Trump chose not to strike Iran at the weekend.
• Equities: Amazon's surge offset Apple's record slide Friday as futures rally Monday on Iran de-escalation.
• Volatility: Vol futures ease as Iran de-escalation lifts markets; payrolls Friday is the next test.
• Digital Assets: Crypto extended Friday's tech-led slide as ETF outflows returned, though spot losses stayed comparatively contained.
• Commodities: Crude oil punched sharply lower on US not moving against Iran. Gold steady.
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields roll back lower with crude oil prices.
• Currencies: Another surge in Japanese yen strength Monday after US and Japan confirmed coordinated intervention to strengthen the currency.

Macro

• Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume today after he canceled a planned military strike over the weekend following appeals from allies like Saudi Arabia to prioritize negotiations. He also renewed his call to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said over the weekend that Japan will coordinate Japanese yen policy with the Bank of Japan, sparking further JPY volatility and a jump in Japan’s short term government bond yields Monday.
• Australia’s Cotality Home Value Index fell 0.7% in July 2026, the sharpest drop since December 2022, as higher borrowing costs and weak sentiment hit demand. Sydney and Melbourne led declines (down 1.4% and 1.2%), with Brisbane and Adelaide also falling, while Perth inched up 0.1%. Regional prices slipped 0.2%, their first drop since January 2023, though national prices were still 5.3% higher than a year earlier.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 55.2 in July 2026 from 54.0, the highest since February, with gains across all groups. Still, sentiment was 11% below a year earlier amid concerns over high prices. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.2%, and long-run expectations stayed at 3.3%.
• Year-ahead US inflation expectations fell to 4.2% in July 2026 from 4.6% in June, a second straight decline and the lowest since March, but still above February’s 3.4% and any 2024 reading. The five-year outlook held at 3.3%, slightly above the 2.8%–3.2% range seen through 2024.
• Canada’s GDP is expected to grow 0.2% in June 2026, implying 0.8% Q2 growth, as gains in wholesale, finance, insurance, and retail offset declines in utilities and agriculture. May GDP rose 0.3%, with goods output up 0.6% on stronger oil and gas and services up 0.2%.
• Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.8%, above the ECB’s 2% target, mainly due to energy inflation jumping to 10%. Core inflation inched up to 2.5%, with most major economies seeing faster price growth except Italy, where it dipped slightly.
• Germany’s jobless rate rose to 6.4% in July 2026 from 6.3%, above forecasts, as unemployment grew by 6,000 to 2.99 million. The labor market is weakening after the Iran war shock, while inflation climbed to 2.8% on higher energy costs, darkening the outlook despite stronger‑than‑expected Q2 GDP.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0630 – Switzerland Jul. CPI
• 1400 – US Jul. ISM Manufacturing

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

• Monday: Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International
• Tuesday: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
• Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
• Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
• Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 0.6%, as Amazon surged around 15% on strong earnings, offsetting a 7.4% slide in Apple, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly $358bn, on chip-related concerns. US equity index futures pointed higher Monday, S&P 500 futures up around 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.9%, on Iran deal optimism, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100 in July as the semiconductor momentum unwind deepened. The question dominating Wall Street heading into August, per Bespoke Investment Group, is whether the AI-linked weakness marks a lasting inflection point or just a rebalancing event, with earnings still coming in strong even as valuations get tested. Elsewhere, ExxonMobil and Chevron directed windfall profits toward debt reduction rather than bigger buybacks, while Reddit disappointed on the absence of new data-licensing deals and Roblox missed on daily active users.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 hit a record in July, up 1.2% on the month for a fourth straight winning month, pulling ahead of the S&P 500 year-to-date on its lighter tech weighting and heavier value/bank composition. UK value and income names also outperformed as global investors rotated out of crowded AI trades. Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed 0.9% higher Monday, tracking the broader risk-on tone from the Iran de-escalation.
• Asia: Nikkei futures pointed lower, with traders on alert for further yen intervention, Kioxia may face pressure after its profit forecast missed. The Kospi, which posted a record single-day rise Friday, looked set to struggle Monday as Samsung and SK Hynix shares pointed lower after a new DeepSeek model weighed on memory sentiment. Morgan Stanley upgraded Korean equities to overweight, citing 36% upside to a 9,000 target following the "leverage washout." The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5% Friday, while Hong Kong and Southeast Asian markets are expected to take their cue from the Iran deal optimism and softer oil prices.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.99 | VIX FUTURES: 18.02 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (141.23) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Front-month VIX futures eased to 18.02 as Trump's fresh US-Iran talks and a shelved strike sent Brent down over 7%, even as a new DeepSeek model revived chip-selloff jitters that knocked the Kospi almost 5%. The S&P 500 closed Friday up 0.7% at 7,489.72; cash VIX settled at 15.99.
• The curve held in contango, SKEW elevated at 141.23, MOVE up to 83.0. Pre-market SPXW pricing implies a same-day move of 41 points (0.55%) and 92 points (1.23%) to Friday 7 August, both down from last Monday's 53pt/0.71% and 134pt/1.81% on a same day-count basis, with Friday's payrolls the catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~62,877 -1.0% | ETHEREUM ~1,858 -1.3% | IBIT 35.64 -2.89% | ETHA 14.07 -3.03% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

• Digital assets extended Friday's tech-driven pullback into the weekend, with bitcoin and ether spot easing modestly in thin trade. Crypto-linked equities bore the brunt of Friday's session, IBIT and ETHA both down around 3%, while miners led losses, Riot down 8.8% and Coinbase off 10.6%.
• US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $265 million of net outflows on Friday, IBIT alone losing $123 million, ending a brief two-day inflow run and underscoring how fragile the institutional bid remains. See Saxo's pricing overview for the costs and applicable charges on IBIT and ETHA.

Commodities

• Crude oil traded sharply lower Monday after US President Trump chose not to pursue further attacks against Iran over the weekend, though prices rebounded from intraday lows. October Brent steadied near USD 83.50 per barrel, down over four dollars from Friday’s close, but almost two dollars higher from 81.55 lows. September WTI crude oil traded early Monday in Europe just below USD 80 per barrel after an overnight low below 79.
• Gold and silver remain rangebound, ignoring the volatility in the fixed income and currency markets late last week and overnight. Gold traded up slightly from Friday’s close early Monday near USD 4,070 per ounce, while silver trade nearly a dollar higher at USD 58.55 per ounce, though still within the choppy 56.50-60.00 range of last week.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasuries rallied on sharply lower crude oil prices after Trump chose not to move to strike Iran over the weekend. The benchmark 2-year US treasury yield drifted back four basis points toward 4.25% early Monday, with the 10-year yield also about four basis points lower and below 4.70% after closing at the highest level since early 2025 on Friday.
• Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said that that the Ministry of Finance will coordinate yen policy with the Bank of Japan, raising the risk of a BoJ rate hike. The benchmark 2-year Japanese government bond yield jumped five basis points Monday to trade above 1.55%, the highest level for t the cycle. Thirty-year JGB yields were close to unchanged from Friday’s closing levels near 4.0%.

Currencies

• USDJPY fell as low as 155.23 Monday before rebounding to the 156.50 area (and versus Friday’s close near 157.40) as the US and Japan confirmed the first joint intervention to strengthen the JPY since after the 2011 earthquake in Japan and after top currency official Mimura said that yen policy will be coordinated with the Bank of Japan. Authorities reportedly sold euros as well as dollars to move the JPY broadly higher, with EURJPY at 180.50 and GBPJPY at 210.80.
• The USD traded modestly lower in late Asian trading hours Monday against most major currencies (EURUSD at 1.1535 GBPUSD at 1.3470, AUDUSD at 0.7030) but had firmed from its lowest levels earlier in the session as USDJPY bounced from lows.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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