Macro Dragon: WK # 45 - Blue Tsunami, Fed, RBA, BoE & Brexit Macro Dragon: WK # 45 - Blue Tsunami, Fed, RBA, BoE & Brexit Macro Dragon: WK # 45 - Blue Tsunami, Fed, RBA, BoE & Brexit

Macro Dragon: WK # 45 - Blue Tsunami, Fed, RBA, BoE & Brexit

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Blue Tsunami, Fed, RBA, BoE & Brexit


Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 45

  • If you are a global macro gal or dude, hope you rested up & had a relaxing wkd – if you have not, well you still likely got 24-36hrs before things start getting ‘real’ from a tactical perspective

  • What kind of wk are you trying to have up ahead? Wishing everyone a profitable wk & as smooth navigation as possible

  • Markets: Obviously big risk off wk last wk, with volatility spiking close to +40% on the VIX 38%, the dollar climbing by well over 100bp with DXY 94.04 +1.4%, Dax 11557 down close to -9%, S&P 3270 close to -6%, gold 1878 down -1.2%, WTI 35.79 -10.2%. A lot of FX names felt the squeeze from G10 names like USDNOK +3.2% 9.5362 to EM FX like USDRUB +4.2% 79.40

  • Best performers? Well Bitcoin $13,823 was +6% for the wk, following a +14% previous wk – its now up 4 wks in a row whilst the rest of the markets have been in a risk-off environment. UST futures were -0.10% at 138-07, unlike their Bund cousins that were +0.51% at 176.15.

  • Focus: There is a ton on this wk, yet the clear focus (rightly or wrongly) will be on the US elections, whilst on the Dragon, KVP has been on the Blue Tsunami theme from back when it was an outlier – obviously anything is possible, including anchor bias – hence our tactical trade view scenarios around the US elections over the wkd…

    Macro Dragon: Trading the US Elections on a Trump or Biden Victory, Let Alone A Contested Scenario...

    …remember the epitome of a world class trader or/& investor is to consistently compound wealth overtime regardless of the outcome. Once again, its about daily-weekly-monthly process over out come

    We’ll obviously be covering the election run-down Asia Wed’s morning, for the latest cut from our in house specialist, these are John “Big Hat” Hardy’s takes:

    US Election Countdown: T-minus two days – What if I’m totally wrong?

    US Election Countdown: T-minus three days – Election Night 2016 vs. 2020

    US Election Countdown: T-minus four days - The polls are not tightening.

    John was also generous enough to offer the following for those looking to follow the coverage in detail from various outlets:

    Election Night resources
    If you are looking at what to watch on Election Night to track the unfolding results, here are a few ideas. Besides the usual live coverage of major US news networks (via YouTube) like ABC and others, the CNN coverage should also be available there as it was in 2016, when it tended to be heavy on the live result updates. Also, look for written live blogs on major newspapers and TV networks, but also on

    The FiveThirtyEight website offers the most comprehensive guide to each state’s election results, both in terms of poll closings, but also with a spin on the likely speed of counting and the partisan patterns that will unfold on election night due to different rules in early- and mail-in voting. A simpler, but very nice graphic overview on website is also available on poll closing times. Also note their great, interactive electoral map you can use as results come in or to test different scenarios.

  • Do note we just got US + CA daylights savings time over the wkd – so they are 11 hrs behind, instead of 12 hrs if you are in the SGT/HKT/CST zones.

  • For what its worth, KVP still thinks we’ll know very quickly that Trump has lost [TX, FL, NC falling to Biden ] despite votes still to be counted & some states having slower reporting systems (i.e. some states have been counting the mailed ballots as they have come in, others have to start on the actual election night).

  • The media will then focus on how it was obvious, but the focus is really on congress & more specifically the Senate. Once we get confirmation of the blue tsunami the market will then focus on the next stimulus/relief bill coming from the US. Hard to see a deal being struck – just given how visceral things have gotten on Capital Hill – yet there will definitely be a HUGE level of uncertainty taken off the table & room for upside in the very near-term.

  • It will then be a question of how long to wait until we get a goliath fiscal spending package & plan, Bidenomics – as well as whether the market decides to focus on that & wait, or sell-off. Naturally what the Fed does in the meantime, will be a function of just how bad any risk-off gets… again, the more we sell-off going into the US elections, the bigger the convexity to the upside regardless of outcome.

  • The risk continues to be to the upside. With the likes of energy (XLE energy etf) continuing to be the no brainer space both on a tactical & strategic horizon.
  • Outside of the US Elections: Keep a watch out for the RBA – Eleanor Creagh’s preview – BoE & of course the Fed on Thu (if that’s not a back stop on potential market fall-out, then KVP does not know what is). We also have final PMIs across the board, plus the works out of the US with ISMs, NFP & U/R. Brexit discussions continue & still ignored for the most part, with latest focus in Europe & US, really being on resurgence on Covid. Soon market will focus on when & how can they expect the next policies to come through.

  • Earnings: Last wk was the big one with the MAGA names reporting, check out Peter Garnry’s debrief in Investors will fall in love with technology stocks again. Summary:

    The earnings from the US technology quartet of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook were strong and much better than expected. Apple disappointed by not providing an outlook, Amazon triggered nervousness of the relative lower market share in cloud infrastructure and Facebook disappointed on its forecast for daily and monthly active users across its markets in the US and Canada. Google on the other hand delivered so strong results that investors were excited. However, all earnings releases were in aggregate very strong and investors love affair with US technology stocks is not over yet as Nasdaq 100 is still offering strong cash flow generation and a clear growth trajectory

    This wk KVP will be watching the large names such as PayPal, QualComm, AstraZeneca, Linde (Ind. Gas), T-Mobile US, Alibaba, Bristol-Myers, Toyota & Berkshire Hathaway. Being one for looking at off the beaten track, we’ll also be hearing from Beyond Meat & Compass Pathways – note links are previous flags on the names, so focus on big-picture as KVP does not tend to have a view on a quarter to quarter basis… that’s not a Macro game… that’s an Equity Long/Short game.

  • Mon: Mondelez, PayPal, Estee Lauder

  • Tue: Humana

  • Wed: Softbank, QualComm, MercadoLibre

  • Thu: AstraZeneca, T-Mobile, Daikin, Nintendo, Linde, Duke Energy, Booking Holdings, Enel, Square, Uber, Alibaba, Bristol-Myers, Dominion Energy, Becton Dickinson, Regeneron

  • Fri: Toyota, Allianz, Nippon, CVS, Enbridge, Berkshire Hathaway

  • Economics: Final PMIs, ISMs + US NFP/UR

  • Central Banks: RBA 0.10%e 0.25%p [ditto for the 3yr YCC], BNM 1.75% e/p, Norges 0.00% e/p, BoE 0.10% e/p, FOMC 0.25%e/p

    Minutes due out of Brazil & Japan.

  • Fed Speak: No one scheduled…

  • Holidays: Japan is out on Tue Nov 3 – always potential for a yen lag/overshoot when they get back in, depending on what news we are getting US Tues night.

  • Other: Good luck & profitable trading for the wk, US Elections & month of November. Also note we got daylights savings over the wkd in North America.


Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.