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The trade war no one believed was coming....

Trade View
Not Specified / Buy
Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Instrument: 10Y US Treasury or 30Y Treasury bonds (September future)
Price Target: 30Y 150 21/32 and 10Y 123 26/32
Market Price: 120 02/32 or 114-16/32


The market is EXTREMELY mispriced on the chance of a trade war. This morning's change from Trump and the immediate response from China confirms that we are entering a phase with little transparency, more volatility and MOST important of all, a marked slow-down in growth.


Entry: 120 02/32 or 114-16/32
Stop: 30Y stop is 113 12/32 and 10Y stop is 119 16/32.
Target: 30Y 150 21/32 and 10Y 123 26/32
Time Horizon: Strategic

Trump on trade
Note the slide above from our macro presentation which we have carried for six months……

Bloomberg has published a comprehensive overview of the latest moves in this Trump-China trade spat and outlines some of the implications and costs – China Vows to Retaliate as Trump Targets $200 Billion in Tariffs. Click here to read it.

treasury chart
Chart: above: 10-year US FI
treasury chart
Chart above: 30-year US fixed income
treasury chart
Chart above: 10-year US yield may fall.
treasury chart
Chart above: An inverted US yield curve portends an imminent recession.              (All charts from Bloomberg)
Management And Risk Description:

I expect US government bonds to perform in this environment (lower growth, uncertainty… plus breaking the 100-day simple moving average this morning).

A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on can be found here (


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