Chief Investment Officer
Instrument: 10Y US Treasury or 30Y Treasury bonds (September future)
Price Target: 30Y 150 21/32 and 10Y 123 26/32
Market Price: 120 02/32 or 114-16/32
The market is EXTREMELY mispriced on the chance of a trade war. This morning's change from Trump and the immediate response from China confirms that we are entering a phase with little transparency, more volatility and MOST important of all, a marked slow-down in growth.
Entry: 120 02/32 or 114-16/32
Stop: 30Y stop is 113 12/32 and 10Y stop is 119 16/32.
Target: 30Y 150 21/32 and 10Y 123 26/32
Time Horizon: Strategic
Bloomberg has published a comprehensive overview of the latest moves in this Trump-China trade spat and outlines some of the implications and costs – China Vows to Retaliate as Trump Targets $200 Billion in Tariffs. Click here to read it.
I expect US government bonds to perform in this environment (lower growth, uncertainty… plus breaking the 100-day simple moving average this morning).
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
