Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Q2 Outlook: The great divergence
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: European equities are global laggards, with weak earnings and low valuations keeping prices well below those of their US counterparts. As we prepare to exit the era of convergence and increasing globalisation, Europe looks set to fall further behind. The question is, what can policymakers do?
In this Q2 Outlook we have chosen to focus on Europe and the outlook for the region’s equities . The depressing reality is that European companies have had negative real growth in operating earnings as the region lacks a strong technology sector that capitalises on the digital age.
Europe's earnings depression
The period after the financial crisis in 2008 was unique in many ways. Monetary policies were experimental to an unprecedented degree, leading to negative yields on many assets around the world. Global equities have delivered phenomenal returns despite lacklustre economic growth, and this was driven largely by US equities, and US technology companies in particular, monetising our digital world.
The post-2008 crisis has also delivered several European political crises with Brexit being the latest one. The US and China have increasingly diverged in terms of worldview, leading to a trade war that has impacted economic activity significantly. On top of this, the period has seen inequality rise with populism following in its footsteps. Everywhere we look, the world is diverging more than converging (which was the main theme from 1982 to 2008).
The period after the financial crisis in 2008 was unique in many ways. Monetary policies were experimental to an unprecedented degree, leading to negative yields on many assets around the world. Global equities have delivered phenomenal returns despite lacklustre economic growth, and this was driven largely by US equities, and US technology companies in particular, monetising our digital world.
The post-2008 crisis has also delivered several European political crises with Brexit being the latest one. The US and China have increasingly diverged in terms of worldview, leading to a trade war that has impacted economic activity significantly. On top of this, the period has seen inequality rise with populism following in its footsteps. Everywhere we look, the world is diverging more than converging (which was the main theme from 1982 to 2008).
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist