Q2 Outlook: The great divergence
Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: European equities are global laggards, with weak earnings and low valuations keeping prices well below those of their US counterparts. As we prepare to exit the era of convergence and increasing globalisation, Europe looks set to fall further behind. The question is, what can policymakers do?
The period after the financial crisis in 2008 was unique in many ways. Monetary policies were experimental to an unprecedented degree, leading to negative yields on many assets around the world. Global equities have delivered phenomenal returns despite lacklustre economic growth, and this was driven largely by US equities, and US technology companies in particular, monetising our digital world.
The post-2008 crisis has also delivered several European political crises with Brexit being the latest one. The US and China have increasingly diverged in terms of worldview, leading to a trade war that has impacted economic activity significantly. On top of this, the period has seen inequality rise with populism following in its footsteps. Everywhere we look, the world is diverging more than converging (which was the main theme from 1982 to 2008).
The difference in earnings power has also made its mark on valuation metrics . US equities are valued 43% higher than European equities measured on 12-month trailing EV/EBITDA. The difference in earnings power and valuation has been driven by multiple factors, but the most important is Europe’s lack of a strong technology sector. The US, meanwhile, has won the battle for domination of the information age, and especially its monetisation.
Avoid Europe's cyclical countries
Adding to Europe’s difficulties is its big bet on globalisation through a highly-tuned export machine, with Germany leading the pack. Europe and especially Germany have benefitted the most from the existing world order of increasing global trade under the US military umbrella (which in turn reduces the need for military expenditures).
increasing it to China, but that strategy comes with great political risk.
Europe’s sensitivity to global trade has been felt by citizens for more than a year now. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s leading indicators on the euro area have been declining since December 2017 and have been below trend (meaning below 100) since August 2018, mimicking leading indicators on the global economy. As a result, European equities are still 6.6% below their recent peak in January 2018.
Contracting economies with below-trend activity have historically delivered negative equity returns. Consequently, we remain defensive on equities until there is evidence of a turning point.
Within Europe, this macro environment is typically bad for Europe’s cyclical equity markets such as Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and France. The equity markets that usually do relatively well in a poor economic environment are Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.
A broken banking system and the German syndrome
One of Europe’s biggest problems remains the banking sector. The total return on Europe’s banking sector is zero since January 2003; in real terms, it’s -28.5% over a 15-year period. This is an ugly parallel to Japan’s zombie banks after its meltdown in the 1990s.
Europe has also agreed to implement costly banking regulations, driving up costs on an already weak sector. It has been 10 years since Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy and Europe’s banking sector has still not healed; this will continue to be an anchor constraining growth and equity returns.
The latest political attempt in Germany to merge Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank is a clear signal as to the current political system’s ability to understand the nature of the problem. Banks are already too big and complex, jeopardising the overall system, and Berlin wants to increase banking sector concentration despite popular outcry. A sensible approach would be to increase competition instead of limiting it.
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.