Bigger Fed cut weighed. Oracle the next company to set the tone in AI.

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Today's links

The Munich Auto Show 2025 is this week, and while China’s EVs are setting the standard in many cases, it is still interesting to see how global carmakers are responding. The next generation of cars is looking more compelling than ever, both from design and range perspective. Here is a preview with some slick video, although people like this guy will be interesting to follow as the show unfolds this week.

Matt Stoller, a great voice against increasingly monopoly power and a true democrat with a small “d” has penned a good one over at his BIG substack on the increasingly fragile US economy that is over-reliant on stock market gains to drive the economy forward, which at the same time drives inequality. As mentioned, this reminds me of Peter Turchin’s “wealth pump” notion in the “cliodynamics” driven framework for why the US is socio-economically destabilizing as outlined in his End Times book.

We all know that Trump has low approval ratings, but there are shades of grey within the ratings that are as important, as far more Americans now strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, while fewer voice strong approval

Here’s another guest on the Thoughtful Money podcast outlining the factors pointing to the risk of a further slowdown in the US economy and a strong outlook for commodities with investor David Hay.

And Jack Farley host a couple of podcasts recently that point to big questions in US credit markets - something you can hear a lot about anecdotally these days but where systematic, publicly available data is non-existent. One with a regulator and another with a consultancy service that analyzes banks on behalf of clients.

Chart of the Day - Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle has suffered a downdraft of late, one that has been a bit more extended and deeper than the correction in Nvidia and others. The company reports its earnings tomorrow after the US market close. Every earnings report for companies with a significant AI angle drives significant volatility risk, and that is especially so for Oracle on its new status as hyperscaler extraordinaire relative to its prior business model, having transitioned from a capex rate of USD 1.6 to 2.1 billion annually during its humdrum no-growth status back in 2019-2021 to a blistering pace of over USD 21 billion in the reporting year to May 2025, sending its cash flow into negative territory even as its shares have rocketed several hundred percent higher over the last five years. The company also now carries USD 100 billion (!) in long term debt versus USD 52 billion six years ago. We preview what the market will be looking for from Oracle’s earnings report on today’s podcast - but we can certainly say that the market is looking for a lot.