Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Markets are overall looking for direction. After the long weekend, US Stocks gave up ground but all moved less than 1%. The Dow closed down 0.55%, the S&P 500 lost 0.41%, and the Nasdaq down 0.74%. We are a bit directionless as it seems to be unclear what to focus on in the near term.
The USD Index is elevated at 110.50 EURUSD 0.9890 and GBPUSD 1.1480 and Gold and Silver 1695 and 17.96. USDJPY soared trough 144 to trade 144.14 now. One would expect comments out of the BoJ at any moment.
The Fed is overall seen as more hawkish than other central banks.
Liz Tuss took over as the new PM of the UK and said she would take immediate action on high energy costs and economic worries – so far the GBP is not impressed,
Chinese Imports as well as exports came out below expectations.
After the CFO of Bed Bath and Beyond fell to his death last Friday, shares lost 18%.
Today there will be 4 Fed speakers, and the Beige Book released, this evening Apple will present it`s newest product range and political comments on stimulus measures can come at any moment.
Tomorrow the ECB will be the key event
Economic Data
Today: De Industrial Orders, EU and US PMI,
Wednesday: AU GDP, China Exports, DE Industrial Output, EU GDP, CA Care Decision,
Thursday; CH Unemployment Rate, ECB Rate decision, US Jobs data
Friday: CN PPI, CA Unemployment rate
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
White Sugar - Oct 2022 (WV2) will expire 7th Sep at 9:00 GMT
Euro-BONO - Sep 2022 (FBONU2) will expire 7th Sep at 12:00 GMT
Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTPU2), Short-Term-Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTSU2), Euro-Bund - Sep 2022 (FGBLU2), Euro-BOBL - Sep 2022 (FGBMU2), Euro-Schatz - Sep 2022 (FGBSU2), Euro-BUXL - Sep 2022 (FGBXU2), Euro-OAT - Sep 2022 (FOATU2), will expire 7th Sep at 1500 GMT