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Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew September 5 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Energy Worries Weigh on Europe

Good Morning

On this US Holiday, risk aversion and a weak Euro dominate overall sentiment. Russia announced it was not taking Nord Stream online again after the recent maintenance – a further surege of energy cost is expected and is weighing on Indexes. the Euro and GBP.

The USD Index reaches a new high of above 110, levels not seen since the early 2000`, ne next big chart level would be the 120.

EURUSD Fell to below 99 and a 20 Year Low against the USD, GBPUSD below 1.15 Bitcoin and  ETH are trading at 19700 and 1562, Gold and Silver are so far stable at 1711 and 18.08.

The Dax Index is under pressure, losing 3% off Fridays Close int eh Future (measured against the cash index close at 17:30 the previous day) So far the  12,438 level is holding up.

Several European governments announced emergency measures to help deal with high energy costs and there is an EU Energy crisis meeting on September 9th. Sweden is setting up a emergency finds to the tune of €23 bio and Germany €65 bio

The Chinese PMI fell slightly on renewed Covid fears.

It seems the Energy Cost Crisis will dominate the news this week, also the ECB rate decision will be watched closely on Thursday, as of now, a probability of 92% is being traded for a 75 BPS hike, in the US a 57% chance for a 75 BPS hike (on September 22)

Markets are stuck in Limbo trying to assess the implications of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.

Economic Data

Today: Swiss GDP, International PMI, EU Retail Sales

Tuesday: De Industrial Orders, EU and US PMI,

Wednesday: AU GDP, China Exports, DE Industrial Output, EU GDP, CA Care Decision,

Thursday; CH Unemployment Rate, ECB Rate decision, US Jobs data

Friday: CN PPI, CA Unemployment rate

 

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

White Sugar - Oct 2022 (WV2) will expire 7th Sep at 9:00 GMT

Euro-BONO - Sep 2022 (FBONU2) will expire 7th Sep at 12:00 GMT

Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTPU2), Short-Term-Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTSU2), Euro-Bund - Sep 2022 (FGBLU2), Euro-BOBL - Sep 2022 (FGBMU2), Euro-Schatz - Sep 2022 (FGBSU2), Euro-BUXL - Sep 2022 (FGBXU2), Euro-OAT - Sep 2022 (FOATU2),  will expire 7th Sep at 1500 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train

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    Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
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  • Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winners

    With US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
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  • Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majors

    The everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
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  • The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sails

    With cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
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  • Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?

    Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
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  • Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tide

    The Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
    Read article

  • Green transformation detour and bear market hibernation

    With the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
    Read article

  • Crisis redux for the eurozone?

    Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
    Read article

  • Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on Equities

    The Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
    Read article

  • China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years ago

    China is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.
    Read article

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